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Apr 08, 2019

Harley-Davidson (HOG, $39.95) stock slackens, after analysts downgrade it

Wells Fargo analysts downgraded Harley-Davidson stock, leading to shares of the iconic motorcycle brand dropping -2% on the news Monday.

The analysts lowered their rating to “market perform” from “outperform”. Analyst Timothy Conder indicated that the risk-reward profile for Harley-Davidson is less attractive at existing levels. He also warned of challenges on pricing/supply dynamics for the entire industry – not just Harley-Davidson. He also mentioned that there is a growing consumer tilt toward mid-sized and smaller motorcycles.

Nevertheless, Conder raised his price target on the motorcycle company's stock to $41 per share from $40. That represents a 2% upside from the stock's previous closing price of $40.31.

 

Related Ticker: HOG

HOG sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average

The 50-day moving average for HOG moved above the 200-day moving average on January 29, 2024. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 66 cases where HOG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

HOG moved above its 50-day moving average on February 02, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for HOG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on February 08, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HOG advanced for three days, in of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for HOG moved out of overbought territory on February 13, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 33 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 26, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HOG as a result. In of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for HOG turned negative on February 27, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HOG declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

HOG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 09, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for HOG entered a downward trend on February 07, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HOG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HOG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.539) is normal, around the industry mean (47.770). P/E Ratio (7.530) is within average values for comparable stocks, (50.985). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.890) is also within normal values, averaging (2.434). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.064) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.912) is also within normal values, averaging (9.963).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG), YETI Holdings (NYSE:YETI), Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON), MasterCraft Boat Holdings (NASDAQ:MCFT).

Industry description

The Leisure and Recreation Products industry includes companies offering recreational goods/services such as video games, swimming pools, golf courses, boats, outdoor spaces etc. Since these are mainly geared towards consumers, strong employment conditions and healthy incomes generally augur well for the recreational products industry. Some of the largest market caps in this space belong to video game developers (e.g. Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts and Take-two Interactive), and toy /board game makers (like Hasbro).

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Recreational Products Industry is 4.7B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 5.94K to 63.42B. OLCLY holds the highest valuation in this group at 63.42B. The lowest valued company is CLUBQ at 5.94K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Recreational Products Industry was -0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -1%, and the average quarterly price growth was -12%. XPOF experienced the highest price growth at 34%, while JAKK experienced the biggest fall at -34%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Recreational Products Industry was -11%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -50% and the average quarterly volume growth was -64%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 54
P/E Growth Rating: 61
Price Growth Rating: 55
SMR Rating: 68
Profit Risk Rating: 85
Seasonality Score: 3 (-100 ... +100)
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HOGDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
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published General Information

General Information

a manufacturer of motorcycles, parts and accessories

Industry RecreationalProducts

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Motor Vehicles
Address
3700 West Juneau Avenue
Phone
+1 414 342-4680
Employees
6400
Web
https://www.harley-davidson.com
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HOG and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HOG has been closely correlated with BC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HOG jumps, then BC could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To HOG
1D Price
Change %
HOG100%
+0.91%
BC - HOG
74%
Closely correlated
+0.50%
THO - HOG
67%
Closely correlated
-1.48%
PII - HOG
64%
Loosely correlated
-1.28%
WGO - HOG
64%
Loosely correlated
-3.52%
MBUU - HOG
60%
Loosely correlated
-2.08%
More
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