TRENDING KEYWORDS
Holiday Online Trading Spike has Wayfair Inc. (W, $272.23) and Shopify (SHOP, $1074.1) Moving Up in Tandem
After record-shattering Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, Wayfair Inc. (W) and Shopify (SHOP) appear to be moving in tandem, with projected strong short-term average growth of 15.5% within the last month. Tickeron’s technical indicators point to a continued growth for Wayfair, amplified by its breakout from the trendline support and resistance: having bounced off the new $270.15 support line, the price is climbing toward the new $290.07 resistance line.
Zack’s Investment Research included Wayfair in its Top 5 Breakthrough Stocks of 2020, with an impressive 170% year-to-date growth. Tickeron tracked a 224% growth for Wayfair in 2020.
In contrast, Shopify looks to be due for a decline as it breakout out of its highest and latest resistance line. Historically, since July 2020, the stock balances between a lowest support of $885 and a highest resistance of $1134.
On December 15, 2020, Investorplace warned traders to sell Shopify before year-end, citing analysts who believe it to be overvalued an due for correction. (With a 231% price growth since March, a soaring $1,054.76 per share certainly raises eyebrows.) However, a day later, on December 16, Investorplace corrected themselves and published a strong buy on Shopify.
SHOP vs W: Comparison
Stock price -- (SHOP: $359.96 vs. W: $50.98)
Brand notoriety: SHOP and W are both notable
SHOP represents the Packaged Software, while W is part of the Internet Retail industry
Current volume relative to the 65-day Moving Average: SHOP: 46% vs. W: 50%
Market capitalization -- SHOP: $50.3B vs. W: $6B
SHOP [@Packaged Software] is valued at $50.3B. W’s [@Internet Retail] market capitalization is $6B. The market cap for tickers in the [@Packaged Software] industry ranges from $2T to $0. The market cap for tickers in the [@Internet Retail] industry ranges from $1.2T to $0. The average market capitalization across the [@Packaged Software] industry is $6.2B. The average market capitalization across the [@Internet Retail] industry is $21.2B.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SHOP’s FA Score shows that FA rating(s) are green while W’s FA Score has green FA rating(s).
- SHOP’s FA Score: , .
- W’s FA Score: , .
According to our system of comparison, SHOP is a better buy in the long-term than W.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SHOP’s TA Score shows that TA indicator(s) are bullish while W’s TA Score has bullish TA indicator(s).
- SHOP’s TA Score: , .
- W’s TA Score: , .
According to our system of comparison, SHOP is a better buy in the short-term than W.
Price Growth
SHOP (@Packaged Software) experienced а +5.86% price change this week, while W (@Internet Retail) price change was --18.24% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was --0.95%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was 0.00%, and the average quarterly price growth was 0.00%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Internet Retail industry was +0.69%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was 0.00%, and the average quarterly price growth was 0.00%.
Reported Earning Dates
SHOP is expected to report earnings on Aug 2, 2022.
W is expected to report earnings on Aug 4, 2022.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-0.9% weekly)
Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
@Internet Retail (+0.7% weekly)
The internet retail industry includes companies that sell products and services through the Internet. With more and more consumers using online retailers, the companies have seen a big increase in the use of their services. Some of the companies in the group are focused on selling business-to-business products and services. Others sell business-to-consumer products and services. Internet retailers offer a wide variety of products like books, apparel, and electronics. Some companies even specialize in only one or two categories. One potentially critical factor for players to thrive in this space is the quality and speed of product delivery. This requires an investment in efficient distribution networks. Things like logistics are important factors in the success in the extremely competitive industry. For a company to stay relevant in the industry it must have effective pricing strategies and upgraded websites. The websites must be easy to navigate and engaging for customers. In addition to the revenues generated from straight sales, internet retailers can generate revenue from subscription fees and advertising. Amazon.com, Inc., Alibaba Group, and JD.com are some of the global leaders.
SHOP vs W: Fundamental Ratings
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SHOP's Valuation (93) in the Information Technology Services industry is in the same range as W (99) in the Internet Retail industry. This means that SHOP’s stock grew similarly to W’s over the last 12 months.
SHOP's Profit vs Risk Rating (75) in the Information Technology Services industry is in the same range as W (95) in the Internet Retail industry. This means that SHOP’s stock grew similarly to W’s over the last 12 months.
SHOP's SMR Rating (87) in the Information Technology Services industry is in the same range as W (100) in the Internet Retail industry. This means that SHOP’s stock grew similarly to W’s over the last 12 months.
SHOP's Price Growth Rating (95) in the Information Technology Services industry is in the same range as W (97) in the Internet Retail industry. This means that SHOP’s stock grew similarly to W’s over the last 12 months.
SHOP's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Information Technology Services industry is significantly better than the same rating for W (79) in the Internet Retail industry. This means that SHOP’s stock grew significantly faster than W’s over the last 12 months.
SHOP's Valuation (93) in the Information Technology Services industry is in the same range as W (99) in the Internet Retail industry. This means that SHOP’s stock grew similarly to W’s over the last 12 months.
SHOP's Profit vs Risk Rating (75) in the Information Technology Services industry is in the same range as W (95) in the Internet Retail industry. This means that SHOP’s stock grew similarly to W’s over the last 12 months.
SHOP's SMR Rating (87) in the Information Technology Services industry is in the same range as W (100) in the Internet Retail industry. This means that SHOP’s stock grew similarly to W’s over the last 12 months.
SHOP's Price Growth Rating (95) in the Information Technology Services industry is in the same range as W (97) in the Internet Retail industry. This means that SHOP’s stock grew similarly to W’s over the last 12 months.
SHOP's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Information Technology Services industry is significantly better than the same rating for W (79) in the Internet Retail industry. This means that SHOP’s stock grew significantly faster than W’s over the last 12 months.
SHOP's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for SHOP entered a downward trend on May 16, 2022. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 128 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 99 of the 128 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 77%.
Current price $359.96 is below $405.00 the lowest support line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 04/13/22 - 05/16/22, the price experienced a -40% Downtrend, while the week of 05/09/22 - 05/16/22 shows a +6% Uptrend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SHOP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SHOP's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 18 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Stochastic Indicator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 42 of 53 cases where SHOP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SHOP just turned positive on May 16, 2022. Looking at past instances where SHOP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 46 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Following a +26.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHOP advanced for three days, in 300 of 360 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
SHOP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 85%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.97.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. SHOP’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.187) is normal, around the industry mean (16.471). P/E Ratio (322.581) is within average values for comparable stocks, (154.393). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (10.090) is also within normal values, averaging (4.591). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.027) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.604) is also within normal values, averaging (124.500).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SHOP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
W's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for W entered a downward trend on May 16, 2022. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 194 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 167 of the 194 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 86%.
Current price $50.98 is below $158.86 the lowest resistance line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 04/13/22 - 05/16/22, the price experienced a -56% Downtrend. During the week of 05/09/22 - 05/16/22, the stock fell -18%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for W turned negative on May 05, 2022. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 38 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 82%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where W declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for W's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +8.97% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where W advanced for three days, in 283 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
W may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 76%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 2.12.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 99 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (19.933). P/E Ratio (147.059) is within average values for comparable stocks, (97.426). W's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (23.500) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.022). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.024) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.453) is also within normal values, averaging (40.369).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. W’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. W’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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