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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
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Jul 24, 2019

Home Construction ETF (ITB) hits lower rail of channel and gets bullish signal

The housing industry has been pointing to a recovery for several months now and with the Fed expected to cut interest rates at the July FOMC meeting that should only help the turnaround. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSE: ITB) has been trending higher since the December low and a trend channel has formed since the beginning of the year.

The low closes from January, March, and last week connect to form the lower rail of the channel while the upper rail is less organized. The swings within the channel have been good for 8% to 12% upward moves and they have started with the stochastic readings in oversold territory and then making a bullish crossover.

The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bullish signal for the ETF on June 28. The signal showed a confidence level of 88%. The signal calls for a gain of at least 4% over the coming month while 95% of past predictions on the ITB have been successful.

The housing industry is one of the most interest-rate sensitive industries. With growing pressure on the Fed to cut rates, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Fed Prediction tool was showing a 65% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut.

Related Ticker: ITB

Momentum Indicator for ITB turns negative, indicating new downward trend

ITB saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on June 14, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 87 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 87 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

ITB moved below its 50-day moving average on May 20, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for ITB crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 21, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ITB declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for ITB entered a downward trend on June 14, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 45 cases where ITB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ITB just turned positive on June 13, 2024. Looking at past instances where ITB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ITB advanced for three days, in of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

ITB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe's Companies (NYSE:LOW), DR Horton (NYSE:DHI), Lennar Corp (NYSE:LEN), Pultegroup (NYSE:PHM), Owens Corning (NYSE:OC), KB Home (NYSE:KBH).

Industry description

The investment seeks to track the investment results of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index composed of U.S. equities in the home construction sector. The index measures the performance of the home construction sector of the U.S. equity market, as defined by the index provider. The fund generally will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index. It is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the iShares US Home Construction ETF ETF is 25.82B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 864.86M to 380.15B. HD holds the highest valuation in this group at 380.15B. The lowest valued company is ETD at 864.86M.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the iShares US Home Construction ETF ETF was 2%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was -7%, and the average quarterly price growth was 3%. SKY experienced the highest price growth at 8%, while NX experienced the biggest fall at -9%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the iShares US Home Construction ETF ETF was -10%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was -26% and the average quarterly volume growth was -75%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 61
P/E Growth Rating: 29
Price Growth Rating: 53
SMR Rating: 44
Profit Risk Rating: 29
Seasonality Score: 35 (-100 ... +100)
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A.I.Advisor
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A.I. Advisor
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General Information

Category ConsumerDiscretionary

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Category
Consumer Cyclical
Address
iShares Trust400 Howard StreetSan Francisco
Phone
1-800-474-2737
Web
www.ishares.com
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