Housing Market Update
Do the rising interest rates started to take a toll on new home buyers? Maybe! At least new home sales missed most analyst’s expectations.
Here are the hard numbers: the new home sales decreased 5.3% month-over-month in June to a seasonally adjusted rate of 631,000. The number itself does not tell you much, of course. Moreover, it is significantly below most the estimates (O.K. – what a big deal? Most analysts are wrong most of the time anyway). But what is important is that the June decline is the largest monthly drop since December – and the prices declined as well.
The median sales price decreased by 4.2% year-over-year to $302,000 (Bay Area residents – do not laugh – these new buyers were not buying garages – but real houses). The average price decreased by 2.0% to $363,300.
ITB's Stochastic Oscillator stoops into oversold zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for ITB moved into oversold territory on June 17, 2025. Be on the watch for the price uptrend or consolidation in the future. At that time, consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for ITB crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 13, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ITB advanced for three days, in of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 17, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ITB as a result. In of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ITB turned negative on June 17, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
ITB moved below its 50-day moving average on June 13, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ITB declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ITB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 10, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ITB entered a downward trend on June 11, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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Category ConsumerDiscretionary
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