Irrational Moves for Airlines Stocks after Election and Vaccine Results
After former Vice President Biden was predicted the winner of the U.S. presidential election on Saturday morning, stock futures opened higher on Sunday evening. The gains were across the board for the major U.S. indices and they ranged from 1.5% to 2.0%. Then on Monday morning, Pfizer (PFE) announced results from its vaccine trials and they showed a 90% success rate in blocking the virus. This news sent markets soaring higher all over the globe and U.S. index futures jumped anywhere from 4% to 7% on the Russell.
Once the market opened we saw huge moves from certain industries and sectors. There were big moves on both sides as some stocks jumped 15-20% and others fell just as sharply. Investors reacted as if the vaccine was going to be available tomorrow and that everyone in the world was going to rush out to get it.
Some of the biggest movers to the upside were the airlines stocks. I pulled up United Airlines (UAL), American Airlines (AAL), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) on Tickeron in order to check how these companies rated in both the fundamentals and the technical indicators. When I ran the comparison, the first thing that jumped out at me was how the three stocks were doing at midday on Monday.
We see United up 18.69%, American up 17.28%, and Delta up 14.99%. And I get it, the news about an effective vaccine is a big game changer and the first step for life getting back to normal when it comes to traveling and such. But again, the vaccine won’t be available for another few months and even then it’s not like people are going to jump on planes as readily as they did before the pandemic.
If we look at the fundamental ratings for these three companies, there are very few positive ratings—only one for United and two for American. American has a strong SMR Rating and a good Valuation Rating. The only positive for United is the Seasonality aspect. There aren’t any positive ratings for Delta.
All three stocks have poor Outlook Ratings and all three score a 100 in the Profit Vs. Risk Rating and that is the worst possible score. All three also score poorly in the P/E Growth Rating. United and Delta both score very poorly in the SMR Ratings.
The stocks score much better in the technical analysis indicators with all three receiving four bullish signals. United has five bearish signals to offset the four bullish signals. Delta and American both have six bearish signals to cancel out the four bullish signals. All three stocks have bullish signals in three areas—the Stochastic Indicators, the Weekly Trend, and the Bollinger Bands.
The full breakdown appears below, but I personally feel these moves are irrational, knee-jerk reactions.
Momentum Indicator for AAL turns negative, indicating new downward trend
AAL saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on November 14, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 80 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 80 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AAL moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AAL turned negative on November 13, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
AAL moved above its 50-day moving average on November 21, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AAL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for AAL moved above the 200-day moving average on October 30, 2025. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAL advanced for three days, in of 286 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
AAL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 238 cases where AAL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (3.964). P/E Ratio (14.069) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.873). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.390) is also within normal values, averaging (3.520). AAL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.035). P/S Ratio (0.163) is also within normal values, averaging (0.582).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
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General Information
a provider of air transportation services for passengers and cargo
Industry Airlines
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