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Rick Pendergraft's Avatar
published in Blogs
Nov 11, 2020

Irrational Moves for Airlines Stocks after Election and Vaccine Results

After former Vice President Biden was predicted the winner of the U.S. presidential election on Saturday morning, stock futures opened higher on Sunday evening. The gains were across the board for the major U.S. indices and they ranged from 1.5% to 2.0%. Then on Monday morning, Pfizer (PFE) announced results from its vaccine trials and they showed a 90% success rate in blocking the virus. This news sent markets soaring higher all over the globe and U.S. index futures jumped anywhere from 4% to 7% on the Russell.

Once the market opened we saw huge moves from certain industries and sectors. There were big moves on both sides as some stocks jumped 15-20% and others fell just as sharply. Investors reacted as if the vaccine was going to be available tomorrow and that everyone in the world was going to rush out to get it.

Some of the biggest movers to the upside were the airlines stocks. I pulled up United Airlines (UAL), American Airlines (AAL), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) on Tickeron in order to check how these companies rated in both the fundamentals and the technical indicators. When I ran the comparison, the first thing that jumped out at me was how the three stocks were doing at midday on Monday.

We see United up 18.69%, American up 17.28%, and Delta up 14.99%. And I get it, the news about an effective vaccine is a big game changer and the first step for life getting back to normal when it comes to traveling and such. But again, the vaccine won’t be available for another few months and even then it’s not like people are going to jump on planes as readily as they did before the pandemic.

If we look at the fundamental ratings for these three companies, there are very few positive ratings—only one for United and two for American. American has a strong SMR Rating and a good Valuation Rating. The only positive for United is the Seasonality aspect. There aren’t any positive ratings for Delta.

All three stocks have poor Outlook Ratings and all three score a 100 in the Profit Vs. Risk Rating and that is the worst possible score. All three also score poorly in the P/E Growth Rating. United and Delta both score very poorly in the SMR Ratings.

The stocks score much better in the technical analysis indicators with all three receiving four bullish signals. United has five bearish signals to offset the four bullish signals. Delta and American both have six bearish signals to cancel out the four bullish signals. All three stocks have bullish signals in three areas—the Stochastic Indicators, the Weekly Trend, and the Bollinger Bands.

The full breakdown appears below, but I personally feel these moves are irrational, knee-jerk reactions.

Related Ticker: AAL

Momentum Indicator for AAL turns positive, indicating new upward trend

AAL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on June 06, 2023. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 98 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 98 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AAL just turned positive on May 30, 2023. Looking at past instances where AAL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

AAL moved above its 50-day moving average on May 25, 2023 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for AAL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 16, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAL advanced for three days, in of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 152 cases where AAL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

AAL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 17, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (78.786). P/E Ratio (5.552) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.388). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.085) is also within normal values, averaging (0.454). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.041) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.191) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE:LUV), United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL), American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL), JetBlue Airways Corp (NASDAQ:JBLU).

Industry description

Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Airlines Industry is 6.3B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 246.81K to 24.19B. DAL holds the highest valuation in this group at 24.19B. The lowest valued company is GLUX at 246.81K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Airlines Industry was 3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 7%, and the average quarterly price growth was 13%. ELALF experienced the highest price growth at 41%, while FNNNF experienced the biggest fall at -16%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Airlines Industry was -20%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -21% and the average quarterly volume growth was -5%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 59
P/E Growth Rating: 56
Price Growth Rating: 49
SMR Rating: 70
Profit Risk Rating: 92
Seasonality Score: -38 (-100 ... +100)
View a ticker or compare two or three
Technical Analysis# Of IndicatorsAvg. Odds
   
   
Show details...
A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a provider of air transportation services for passengers and cargo

Industry Airlines

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Airlines
Address
1 Skyview Drive
Phone
+1 682 278-9000
Employees
127900
Web
https://www.americanairlines.in
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10x Genomics

AAL and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AAL has been closely correlated with UAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AAL jumps, then UAL could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To AAL
1D Price
Change %
AAL100%
+1.54%
UAL - AAL
89%
Closely correlated
+1.23%
DAL - AAL
87%
Closely correlated
+1.57%
ALK - AAL
81%
Closely correlated
+1.90%
JBLU - AAL
75%
Closely correlated
+0.27%
LUV - AAL
74%
Closely correlated
+1.32%
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