Irrational Moves for Airlines Stocks after Election and Vaccine Results
After former Vice President Biden was predicted the winner of the U.S. presidential election on Saturday morning, stock futures opened higher on Sunday evening. The gains were across the board for the major U.S. indices and they ranged from 1.5% to 2.0%. Then on Monday morning, Pfizer (PFE) announced results from its vaccine trials and they showed a 90% success rate in blocking the virus. This news sent markets soaring higher all over the globe and U.S. index futures jumped anywhere from 4% to 7% on the Russell.
Once the market opened we saw huge moves from certain industries and sectors. There were big moves on both sides as some stocks jumped 15-20% and others fell just as sharply. Investors reacted as if the vaccine was going to be available tomorrow and that everyone in the world was going to rush out to get it.
Some of the biggest movers to the upside were the airlines stocks. I pulled up United Airlines (UAL), American Airlines (AAL), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) on Tickeron in order to check how these companies rated in both the fundamentals and the technical indicators. When I ran the comparison, the first thing that jumped out at me was how the three stocks were doing at midday on Monday.
We see United up 18.69%, American up 17.28%, and Delta up 14.99%. And I get it, the news about an effective vaccine is a big game changer and the first step for life getting back to normal when it comes to traveling and such. But again, the vaccine won’t be available for another few months and even then it’s not like people are going to jump on planes as readily as they did before the pandemic.
If we look at the fundamental ratings for these three companies, there are very few positive ratings—only one for United and two for American. American has a strong SMR Rating and a good Valuation Rating. The only positive for United is the Seasonality aspect. There aren’t any positive ratings for Delta.
All three stocks have poor Outlook Ratings and all three score a 100 in the Profit Vs. Risk Rating and that is the worst possible score. All three also score poorly in the P/E Growth Rating. United and Delta both score very poorly in the SMR Ratings.
The stocks score much better in the technical analysis indicators with all three receiving four bullish signals. United has five bearish signals to offset the four bullish signals. Delta and American both have six bearish signals to cancel out the four bullish signals. All three stocks have bullish signals in three areas—the Stochastic Indicators, the Weekly Trend, and the Bollinger Bands.
The full breakdown appears below, but I personally feel these moves are irrational, knee-jerk reactions.
Momentum Indicator for AAL turns negative, indicating new downward trend
AAL saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on February 19, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 82 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 82 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AAL turned negative on February 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
AAL moved below its 50-day moving average on February 11, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AAL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on January 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for AAL entered a downward trend on February 27, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for AAL's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAL advanced for three days, in of 284 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (2.808). P/E Ratio (73.294) is within average values for comparable stocks, (40.401). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.097) is also within normal values, averaging (2.102). AAL's Dividend Yield (0.000) is considerably lower than the industry average of (0.034). AAL's P/S Ratio (0.151) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.636).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock worse than average.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
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General Information
a provider of air transportation services for passengers and cargo
Industry Airlines
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