The century-old American motorcycle icon, Harley-Davidson, may have had its day as a generational shift in attitudes towards heavyweight motorcycles is causing a sales dip. And with falling sales, shares of the company also dropped 32% in the last 12 months.
A recent survey report by UBS suggests that millennials these days consider buying motorcycles for more practical purposes, like easing their transportation, and hence opt for lightweight and less expensive ones. Older customers purchase bikes for lifestyle reasons like ‘as a hobby’ or because ‘motorcycles are cool.’
As an average Harley rider is an early 50’s married man with an annual income of $90,000 or more, people of this age buy motorcycles out of a passion for the product or lifestyle. But millennials seem to be more practical and prefer less expensive bikes that bring-in lower margins for manufacturers.
Millennials also tend to have lower earnings, fewer assets, and less wealth, meaning iconic companies like Harley-Davidson are finding it all the more difficult to stay afloat in an highly competitive and innovative market.
The survey also found, however, that younger generations also buy motorcycles for ‘self-image’ reasons, perhaps the sole hopeful sign for the iconic brand and the industry.
In an effort to counter the situation and to woo the new generation of riders, the company is setting up riding schools across U.S, and also unveiled its first electric motorcycle, the LiveWire – expected to hit market in the coming summer. Furthermore, the company has set up an ambitious plan to lure 2 million more riders to the brand over the next 10 years.
The RSI Oscillator for HOG moved into overbought territory on April 25, 2024. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 67 cases where HOG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HOG advanced for three days, in of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
HOG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 168 cases where HOG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 04, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HOG as a result. In of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for HOG turned negative on April 03, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
HOG moved below its 50-day moving average on April 24, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for HOG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on April 22, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HOG declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.828) is normal, around the industry mean (45.197). P/E Ratio (8.943) is within average values for comparable stocks, (54.447). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.619) is also within normal values, averaging (2.522). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.083) is also within normal values, averaging (7.047).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HOG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HOG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a manufacturer of motorcycles, parts and accessories
Industry RecreationalProducts