Is Exxon’s (XOM, $74.85) U.S. onshore yield going the wrong way?
Integrated oil giant ExxonMobil’s recent production history indicated a steady decrease in production over the last three years. In 2016, Exxon’s average daily oil equivalent production fell roughly by 1% on a y-o-y basis, while in 2017 it dropped roughly 1.7%. In 2018, it dropped another 3.8%. Overall, production fell roughly 6.4% in three years and for an oil-producing company, this isn’t a good trend.
A closer look shows the issue may not be alarming. Even after a rough 2018 in terms of average annual production, the numbers began to bounce back in the second half of that year with the trend being carried over to the first half of 2019, pushing y-o-y production up by 5%.
So, what’s the driver behind this improvement?
The answer: Exxon’s efforts in the onshore U.S. market, where the Permian Basin has finally begun to produce strong results. In 2018, the company initially expected to produce 600,000 oil equivalent barrels per day by 2025. But by the outset of 2019, the company revised its expectations and it now estimates to yield one million barrels per day by 2024. If accomplished, this will account for a massive 66% increase. So far, the company has produced only less than half the target in 2019. But by the time it reaches the target of one million barrels per day, it will only have drilled about half of its current inventory. This would mean that production could go higher than 100% in the next four years.
However, the exciting bit is that even if oil trades at only $35 per barrel, the company still expects to garner a 10% return considering its production scale.
Momentum Indicator for XOM turns positive, indicating new upward trend
XOM saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on December 29, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 91 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 91 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XOM just turned positive on December 23, 2025. Looking at past instances where XOM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
XOM moved above its 50-day moving average on December 17, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XOM advanced for three days, in of 362 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 292 cases where XOM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XOM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XOM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on January 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 52, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. XOM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XOM's P/B Ratio (2.184) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.341). P/E Ratio (19.618) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.015). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.203) is also within normal values, averaging (2.090). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.066) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.807) is also within normal values, averaging (1.030).
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General Information
a distributer of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products
Industry IntegratedOil
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