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published in Blogs
Jun 07, 2019

Is Exxon’s (XOM, $74.85) U.S. onshore yield going the wrong way?

Integrated oil giant ExxonMobil’s recent production history indicated a steady decrease in production over the last three years. In 2016, Exxon’s average daily oil equivalent production fell roughly by 1% on a y-o-y basis, while in 2017 it dropped roughly 1.7%. In 2018, it dropped another 3.8%. Overall, production fell roughly 6.4% in three years and for an oil-producing company, this isn’t a good trend.

A closer look shows the issue may not be alarming. Even after a rough 2018 in terms of average annual production, the numbers began to bounce back in the second half of that year with the trend being carried over to the first half of 2019, pushing y-o-y production up by 5%.

So, what’s the driver behind this improvement?

The answer: Exxon’s efforts in the onshore U.S. market, where the Permian Basin has finally begun to produce strong results. In 2018, the company initially expected to produce 600,000 oil equivalent barrels per day by 2025. But by the outset of 2019, the company revised its expectations and it now estimates to yield one million barrels per day by 2024. If accomplished, this will account for a massive 66% increase. So far, the company has produced only less than half the target in 2019. But by the time it reaches the target of one million barrels per day, it will only have drilled about half of its current inventory. This would mean that production could go higher than 100% in the next four years.

However, the exciting bit is that even if oil trades at only $35 per barrel, the company still expects to garner a 10% return considering its production scale.

Related Ticker: XOM

XOM in +1.17% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on June 06, 2024

Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where XOM advanced for three days, in of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for XOM's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

XOM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 23, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XOM as a result. In of 97 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XOM turned negative on May 22, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

XOM moved below its 50-day moving average on June 03, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for XOM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 28, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XOM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for XOM entered a downward trend on May 31, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. XOM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XOM's P/B Ratio (2.267) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.218). P/E Ratio (13.160) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.146). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (6.848) is also within normal values, averaging (4.841). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.107) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.416) is also within normal values, averaging (0.979).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX), BP plc (NYSE:BP), Petroleo Brasileiro Sa-Petrobras ADS (REP 1 Common Share) (NYSE:PBR), Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU), YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF).

Industry description

Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Integrated Oil Industry is 61.27B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 39.76K to 461.22B. XOM holds the highest valuation in this group at 461.22B. The lowest valued company is PGAS at 39.76K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Integrated Oil Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -1%, and the average quarterly price growth was 11%. POGS experienced the highest price growth at 31%, while OMVJF experienced the biggest fall at -18%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Integrated Oil Industry was -6%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -43% and the average quarterly volume growth was -43%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 49
P/E Growth Rating: 32
Price Growth Rating: 50
SMR Rating: 54
Profit Risk Rating: 66
Seasonality Score: -37 (-100 ... +100)
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XOMDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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published General Information

General Information

a distributer of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products

Industry IntegratedOil

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Integrated Oil
Address
22777 Springwoods Village Parkway
Phone
+1 972 940-6000
Employees
61500
Web
https://www.exxonmobil.com
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