Rick Pendergraft's Avatar
Rick Pendergraft
published in Blogs
Jul 28, 2020
It’s Big Pharma’s Turn in the Earnings Confessional

It’s Big Pharma’s Turn in the Earnings Confessional

Many of the top pharmaceutical companies are working on a vaccination for COVID-19. It seems as if new trial results are released on a daily basis for one drug or another. The global pandemic has certainly changed the fortunes for a number of companies and the attention is obviously warranted.

We don’t have a vaccine yet and there is definitely a race on between big pharma companies to produce a viable vaccine. In the meantime, it seems as if the earnings reports of the companies have taken a backseat to the vaccine research. That may change this week as several major pharmaceutical companies will report earnings on Thursday and Friday.

AstraZeneca (AZN) and Eli Lilly (LLY) are both set to report earnings on Thursday, July 30. Merck (MRK) is set to report on Friday, July 31.

Looking at the Tickeron scorecard, Eli Lilly is rated as a “strong buy” and Astrazeneca is rated as a “buy”. Merck doesn’t fare as well and is rated as a “sell”. The major pharmaceutical industry as a whole is rated as a “sell” so these three are above average as a group. Looking at the price change of these three stocks over the past year we see that Merck has not performed well compared to Lilly and Astrazeneca. Lilly is up over 50% and Astrazeneca is up almost 34%. Merck is down ever so slightly over the last 12 months.

We see that Lilly does extremely well with its fundamental ratings with five positive readings and not a single negative one. Astrazeneca does almost as well with four positive readings and one negative reading. We see the summary below and it includes all of the positive ratings for Astra. The two that aren’t shown for Lilly are its outlook and its seasonality score.

Merck doesn’t do terribly on its fundamental ratings. It has three positive ratings and one negative rating. The negative one is pretty high at 73 and that’s the P/E Growth Rating.

I took note of the fact that all three stocks are considered undervalued at this time and all three have really low scores—single-digit low. The Profit Vs. Risk Rating and the SMR Rating for Lilly are also really low and in the single digits. That helps explain why the stock gets a “strong buy” rating.

Turning our attention to the technical analysis ratings, Astra actually scores a little better than Lilly and Merck doesn’t fare as well once again. Astra gets positive ratings in the MACD, Momentum, and Moving Average categories with negative ratings from the Bollinger Bands and the RSI.

Lilly gets positive ratings from the AROON Indicator and from the Bollinger Bands and it gets negative ratings from the RSI and the Momentum Indicator. Merck’s only positive rating is from the Momentum Indicator and it doesn’t get any negative ratings at this time.

If you look at the weekly charts of the three stocks, Astra was in overbought territory based on a 10-week RSI and the weekly stochastic indicators, but a decline last week moved the stock below overbought levels. Lilly was also overbought based on the weekly stochastic readings, but the RSI hasn’t been in overbought territory since February. With Merck lagging the other two and the overall market, its oscillators are down around the middle of the range at this time. Merck has been grinding sideways between $75 and $82.50 since March.

Heading in to the earnings reports, Astra and Lilly have seen small reductions in the EPS estimate over the last three months while Merck’s estimate has dropped more significantly. Astra and Lilly are both expected to see earnings grow compared to the second quarter of 2019, but Merck is expected to see earnings decline by 20%.

One of the more interesting things I found when looking at the sentiment was that Merck had the highest buy percentage from analysts. Of the 18 analysts covering the stock, 13 gave the stock a “buy” rating with five “hold” ratings. This gives us a buy percentage of 72.2%. Astra’s buy percentage is 66.7% and Lilly’s is 53.3%.

None of the three short interest ratios (SIR) are very high, but Astra’s is really low at only 0.2. While this isn’t necessarily a negative for the stock, it just means that a short covering rally isn’t in the works.

Looking at all of the data from all three analysis styles, I am in complete agreement with the Tickeron Scorecard. Lilly looks the best of the three for the long-term and I would also consider it a strong buy. Astrazeneca looks good as well and I think a buy rating is accurate. Merck just doesn’t look all that great right now and probably deserves a sell rating or a hold rating at best.

Related Tickers: AZN
Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
Sergey Savastiouk
published in Blogs
Mar 07, 2021
4 Tricks Hedge Funds Use to Get Ahead

4 Tricks Hedge Funds Use to Get Ahead

If the stock market were Major League Baseball, hedge funds and institutional investors would be the pros on championship teams while everyday self-directed investors (SDIs) are the benchwarmers in the minors.It’s how they get ahead, and it’s why 90% of SDIs lose money trying to play (invest and trade) in the major leagues. The 4 tricks we discuss below are rooted in one common theme: they all use Artificial Intelligence and algorithms to generate data and ideas.
John Jacques's Avatar
John Jacques
published in Blogs
Mar 22, 2018
A.I. Stock Market Predictions: Head & Shoulders

A.I. Stock Market Predictions: Head & Shoulders

Statistics for the Head-and-Shoulders Bottom Pattern The days where only hedge funds used algorithms to trade stocks are officially over. Now retail investors can use Artificial Intelligence (A.I.  Here’s an example of the algorithm in action: Late last year, Tickeron’s A.I.
Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
Sergey Savastiouk
published in Blogs
Jul 10, 2020
3 Stocks to Buy if Coronavirus Second Wave Hits

3 Stocks to Buy if Coronavirus Second Wave Hits

By analyzing market trends from the first wave, you can predict behavior for the second. Technology stocks have performed at historic levels this year, but the market is severely overbought.To compensate for that, look at performance during Q1 and Q2, the height of global Covid shutdowns.
Edward Flores's Avatar
Edward Flores
published in Blogs
Feb 06, 2021
How to Become the Millionaire Next Door

How to Become the Millionaire Next Door

The Golden Gate Bridge is always a fixture of these walks too, one of man's most beautiful creations.  As we were walking, at one point she turned to me and said, "Man, I'll never have a million dollars."" My girlfriend is 27 years old and works as a graphic designer, making about $75,000 a year.
Alla Petriaieva's Avatar
Alla Petriaieva
published in Blogs
Feb 23, 2021
Is Ethereum’s Bomb about to Explode?

Is Ethereum’s Bomb about to Explode?

Ethereum’s software is set for an update in October.Until it is finished, participants in the Ethereum blockchain must determine how to delay the difficulty bomb – code that necessitates a steadily increasing amount of computer power to mine blocks and unlock rewards – that is already in place.
Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
Sergey Savastiouk
published in Blogs
Aug 07, 2018
When Is the Next Recession Coming?

When Is the Next Recession Coming?

However, we also know that economists predicted 22 recessions out of 11 that took place since 1945. Are there real recession signs we should watch for?Indeed, the answer is yes, and here are a few very important ones: The first one is almost obvious and known to everyone – it is the Fed.
Abhoy Sarkar's Avatar
Abhoy Sarkar
published in Blogs
May 22, 2020
Central banks have been buying $2.4 billion in assets every hour for the past two months

Central banks have been buying $2.4 billion in assets every hour for the past two months

Some $17.8 billion has been poured into  bond markets over the past week, the biggest move in more than three months.Around $3.5 billion has been invested into gold, the second largest on record. 
Rick Pendergraft's Avatar
Rick Pendergraft
published in Blogs
Feb 07, 2021
Mid-January Short Interest Report Shows 8 Stocks with Good Fundamentals and High Short Interest
Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
Sergey Savastiouk
published in Blogs
Mar 10, 2021
How to Start Trading Penny Stocks

How to Start Trading Penny Stocks

Penny stocks have long been marginalized within the professional investment community, oftentimes being painted with a broad brush of simply being “too risky.” Leonardo DiCaprio’s depiction of the penny stock peddling conman, Jordan Belfort, in the Wolf of Wall Street certainly didn’t help.Here are four reasons to start trading them now. Reason #1: Let’s State the Obvious -- Penny Stocks are Cheap A single share of Apple Inc. costs over $350.
Abhoy Sarkar's Avatar
Abhoy Sarkar
published in Blogs
May 08, 2020
US unemployment rate jumps to 14.7%, the highest in series history

US unemployment rate jumps to 14.7%, the highest in series history

The U.S. economy’s employment fell by -20.5 million in April. The coronavirus crisis led to unemployment rate soaring to 14.7% in the U.S, the highest rate in the Bureau of Labor Statistics-tracked series history that goes back to 1948. However, the figures were better compared to several economists'/analysts' forecasts of 22 million job losses and 16% unemployment rate.  Another unemployment measure that includes those who have stopped looking for work as well as those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons also touched an all-time high of 22.8%.