Lockheed Martin (LMT): Pulling Back from Peaks but Up +20% YTD on Defense Strength
Key Takeaways
- Lockheed Martin (LMT) shares have pulled back in recent trading sessions but remain up over +20% year-to-date amid strong defense sector tailwinds.
- Company secured several major U.S. government contracts in recent weeks, including a $4.7 billion deal for PAC-3 missiles.
- Q1 2026 earnings report scheduled for imminent release, with analysts eyeing EPS around $6.66.
- Robust backlog and rising missile demand support long-term growth potential.
- Analyst consensus leans toward Hold, with average price target near $670.
LMT's Current Market Position
I've been following Lockheed Martin (LMT) closely, and the stock has shown some volatility lately, pulling back from earlier highs despite a strong year-to-date performance. From what I see, this reflects broader market caution ahead of quarterly results and mixed news, with contract wins balanced against uncertainties in international deals. The shares still benefit from elevated defense spending and geopolitical tensions that drive demand for aeronautics, missiles, and space systems. Investor sentiment holds up thanks to a substantial backlog and reliable dividend, making LMT a steady option in the aerospace and defense sector through this market cycle.
Recent Contract Wins Fueling Momentum
One thing that stands out for LMT is the series of major contract awards and milestones in recent weeks, which have helped counter some of the downward price pressure. On April 10, the U.S. Army awarded a $4.7 billion contract to ramp up production of PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) interceptors, following January's plan to triple output to around 2,000 units annually. This highlights the growing need for air defense amid global conflicts, and shares reacted positively at first before some selling set in.
The order book got another boost on April 14 with a Pentagon contract worth up to $1.9 billion for C-130J Super Hercules maintenance and aircrew training under a 10-year indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity (IDIQ) deal. That same day, Lockheed Martin expanded its venture capital fund to $1 billion, focusing on supply chain resilience and national security tech. In the space segment, a $105 million U.S. Space Force contract arrived on April 16 for GPS ground control upgrades, alongside the April 21 launch of the final GPS III satellite to improve accuracy and resilience.
Earlier on April 1, the Orion spacecraft carried NASA's astronauts toward the Moon, a key step for the Artemis program. On the international front, the U.S. greenlit a potential $11.9 billion sale of combat systems to Germany involving LMT and RTX, though Peru delayed a $2 billion F-16 deal, adding some uncertainty. Jefferies stuck with its Hold rating on April 7-8, nudging the price target up to $640 from $630, showing cautious optimism.
These updates haven't fully stemmed the recent slide—shares are down about 5% over the past week and 7% monthly as of mid-April—amid profit-taking after +20% year-to-date gains and caution before the April 23 Q1 report. Q4 2025 results from late January missed EPS at $5.80 against $6.33 expected but lifted 2026 sales guidance to $77.5 billion. Geopolitical risks keep supporting defense names like LMT, though execution challenges moderate the outlook. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to gauge how LMT stacks up against industry peers.
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2026 Outlook and What to Watch
Looking toward the rest of 2026, Lockheed Martin draws strength from a backlog nearing $194 billion, driven by F-35 production ramps, missile restocking, and space programs like Orion and GPS IIIF. Guidance calls for sales around $77.5 billion and free cash flow of $6.5-6.8 billion, backed by rising U.S. defense budgets and allied outlays amid global tensions. I'm watching for growth in hypersonics, next-gen air dominance, and commercial space.
Key monitors include missile output scaling, supply chain steadiness after the VC fund increase, and progress on Foreign Military Sales like the Peru F-16s. Risks encompass U.S. budget cuts, fixed-price overruns, and competition from RTX and Northrop Grumman. Regulatory hurdles on M&A and exports are also on my radar. Strong execution across aeronautics (45% of sales), missiles/space, and rotary systems will be crucial.
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LMT sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for LMT moved below the 200-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 24, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LMT as a result. In 42 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LMT turned negative on September 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 19 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 44%.
LMT moved below its 50-day moving average on September 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for LMT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 6 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 38%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LMT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator for LMT entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LMT advanced for three days, in 204 of 348 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (13.643) is normal, around the industry mean (6.305). P/E Ratio (19.104) is within average values for comparable stocks, (58.116). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.978) is also within normal values, averaging (2.564). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.616) is also within normal values, averaging (18.330).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LMT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a manufacturer of components and systems for aerospace and defense use
Industry AerospaceDefense
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