Long Bond ETF gets bullish signal ahead of Fed meeting
Treasury prices have been trending higher and yields have been trending lower for the better part of eight months now. After the Fed meeting in December, the Open Market Committee raised the Fed Funds target rate, but the Fed has been more dovish in its commentary since then. This has led to a rally in treasuries that is one of the strongest in history.
While the Fed only directly controls the Fed Funds rate, its actions have an effect on the entire spectrum of treasury issues. The 30-year bonds have been rallying just as much as other maturities and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Nasdaq: TLT) has moved from the $110 area to a recent high of over $134. Over the last five months, a trend channel has formed on the TLT and the fund has moved toward the lower rail in recent weeks.
The small pullback was enough to move the daily overbought/oversold indicators out of overbought territory and it moved the daily stochastic readings in to oversold territory earlier this week. The indicators made a bullish crossover on July 16.
In addition to the potential bullish signal from the stochastic readings, the Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bullish signal for the TLT on July 14. The signal showed a confidence level of 89% and it calls for a rally of at least 4% within the next month. Past predictions on the TLT have been successful 74% of the time.
TLT's RSI Indicator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for TLT moved out of oversold territory on May 23, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 44 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 61 cases where TLT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 29, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TLT as a result. In of 94 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TLT just turned positive on May 29, 2025. Looking at past instances where TLT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TLT advanced for three days, in of 284 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TLT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
TLT moved below its 50-day moving average on April 30, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TLT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for TLT entered a downward trend on May 30, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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Category LongGovernment
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