M&A Activity Puts Market Information Services Industry in the Spotlight
S&P Global (SPGI) announced on November 30 that it would be acquiring IHS Markit (INFO) for $44 billion. The deal is one of the two largest mergers of 2020 and it has put the market data services industry in the spotlight.
This particular merger was of major interest to me as I have S&P Global, MSCI (MSCI) and Factset Research (FDS) in my 20/2o Model Portfolio. The reason those three stocks got my attention in the first place was due to their earnings and revenue growth. If we look at the Tickeron Screener for these three stocks, all three have really good SMR Ratings. The SMR rating includes sales growth, profit margin, and return on equity—three important fundamental indicators.
The SMR rating is the only fundamental category where all three rank above average, but both MSCI and Factset Research score very well in the Valuation Rating and the Profit vs. Risk rating.
S&P Global scores poorly in its Valuation Rating and the Profit vs. Risk Rating. Those are the only two areas that are a concern for the stock though. MSCI scores poorly in the Outlook Rating while Factset Research scores poorly in its seasonality score. Between the three stocks, those are the only four areas where there is any hint of negativity.
On the technical side, there isn’t a single bearish signal among the three stocks and the seven different indicators. All 21 readings are either neutral or bullish. S&P Global and Factset Research both received bullish signals from their stochastic indicators on November 30 which I thought was interesting. Those two stocks also received bullish signals from the MACD indicators on the same date.
Another area of analysis that got my attention for the three stocks was the sentiment. None of three stocks have extremely high levels of optimism being displayed toward them and Factset Research has quite a bit of pessimism being directed toward it. Looking at the analysts’ ratings for Factset, there are 16 analysts covering the stock with nine “hold” ratings and seven “sell” ratings. Not a single analysts ranks the stock as a buy and that is hard to believe given the company’s strong fundamentals.
S&P Global has seven “buy” ratings and four “hold” ratings while MSCI has six “buy” ratings, five “hold” ratings, and one “sell” rating. Both of those buy percentages are below average.
Turning our attention to the short interest ratios, Factset Research’s ratio is above average at 4.7, while S&P Global and MSCI have short interest ratios that are slightly below the average reading.
When you compare the three companies in all categories, you can see how well they stack up against one another and how they compare to other stocks based on the fundamental and technical analysis.
SPGI's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPGI turned positive on November 08, 2024. Looking at past instances where SPGI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 07, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPGI as a result. In of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SPGI moved above its 50-day moving average on November 21, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SPGI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 26, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPGI advanced for three days, in of 368 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SPGI moved out of overbought territory on December 03, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 56 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 56 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPGI declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SPGI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 25, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SPGI entered a downward trend on November 15, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. SPGI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.000) is normal, around the industry mean (5.702). P/E Ratio (51.894) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.442). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.518) is also within normal values, averaging (2.610). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.893) is also within normal values, averaging (112.495).
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