Match Group trending higher behind strong fundamentals
Online dating site operator Match Group (Nasdaq: MTCH) has been on an incredible run over the last four years. Match Group is the parent company of websites such as Tinder.com, Match.com, and OKCupid.com.
As late as April 2016, the stock was trading under $10 a share before rallying as high as $95 last month. The rally accelerated in the last 10 months and jumped from a low of $31.69 last November to the recent high of $95.32.
We will get to the chart in a minute, but one of the reasons the stock has been able to pull off such an impressive rally is the fundamental performance of the company. Match Group has been able to grow its earnings by 39% per year over the last three years and sales have grown by 23% during that same time period. Analysts expect earnings to grow by 18% for 2019 while sales are expected to grow by 19.4%.
In addition to the outstanding earnings and sales growth, the company’s management efficiency measurements are really good with a return on equity of 138.8% and a profit margin of 31.1%.
Adding these indicators together we see that the Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 4, indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17, and that indicates outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 indicates highest PE growth while a rating of 100 indicates lowest PE growth.
Turning our attention to the daily chart we see that the stock has been moving higher within a trend channel over the last 1o months. The upper rail connects the highs from February, May, and August while the lower rail connects the lows from November, August, and the current level.
The daily stochastic readings reached their lowest level of the past year before turning higher and making a bullish crossover on September 12. The 10-day RSI reached oversold territory for only the second time in the last year.
The Tickeron Technical Analysis overview shows several bullish indications. First, the Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 3, and that indicates outstanding price growth. Match Group’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 points to highest price growth (largest percent return) while a rating of 100 points to lowest price growth (smallest percent return).
The lower Bollinger Band was broken on September 9 and suggests a price increase is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band. In 14 of 20 cases where Match Group's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Despite the fundamental performance and the incredible price gains, the sentiment toward Match Group is decidedly bearish. There are 19 analysts following the stock at this time. There are six “buy” ratings, 12 “hold” ratings, and one “sell” rating. This puts the buy percentage at 31.6% and that is well below average.
The short interest ratio is an incredible 15.95 with over 27 million shares sold short at this time. The ratio itself has bounced around quite a bit, but that has been due to changes in the average daily trading volume more so than the number of shares sold short. The short interest has been growing pretty consistently in the last few months and the current short interest level is the highest of the past year.
MTCH in -3.10% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 10, 2024
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where MTCH declined for three days, in of 340 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
MTCH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTCH as a result. In of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTCH just turned positive on October 15, 2024. Looking at past instances where MTCH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTCH advanced for three days, in of 280 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 193 cases where MTCH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: MTCH's P/B Ratio (103.093) is slightly higher than the industry average of (11.001). P/E Ratio (15.894) is within average values for comparable stocks, (49.688). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.455) is also within normal values, averaging (3.441). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.131) is also within normal values, averaging (19.424).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MTCH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTCH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a provider of dating products
Industry InternetSoftwareServices