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Aug 04, 2020

Microsoft (MSFT, $213.55) shares edge lower, amid Trump's Tiktok sale order

Microsoft Corp.   shares fell Tuesday, after  potential suitors surfaced with respect to the planned sale of TikTok's U.S. operations over the coming weeks.

News broke Friday that U.S. President Donald Trump ordered that Chinese app Tiktok should divest its U.S. operations amid concerns over data privacy linked to its China-based owners, ByteDance, following an investigation by Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. On Sunday, Microsoft said that it's looking at buying TikTok's U.S. business.

Tiktok has been downloaded over 175 million times in the U.S. alone and has 1 billion global users. Trump said the app will be banned in the U.S. if it's not sold by September 15.

"I did say that if you buy it, whatever the price is that goes to whoever owns it, because I guess it’s China essentially, I said a very substantial portion of that price is going to have to come into the Treasury of the United States because we’re making it possible for this deal to happen," Trump told reporters in Washington 

ByteDance said it is considering establishing a TikTok headquarters in a major market outside the United States to better serve its global users.

MSFT enters an Uptrend because Momentum Indicator exceeded the 0 level on July 31, 2020

This indicator signals that MSFT's price has momentum to move higher, since its current price moved above its price 14 days ago. Traders may consider buying the ticker or exploring call options. In 63 of 90 cases where MSFT's Momentum Indicator exceeded 0, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.

Current price $213.44 is above $189.80 the highest resistance line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 07/01/20 - 08/03/20, the price experienced a +6% Uptrend. During the week of 07/27/20 - 08/03/20, the stock enjoyed a +6% Uptrend growth.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Indicator suggests the ticker price trend may be in a reversal from a Downtrend to an Uptrend. 28 of 42 cases where MSFT's Stochastic Indicator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued Uptrend are 67%.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MSFT advanced for three days, in 221 of 355 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 269 of 414 similar cases where MSFT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 65%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator appears to be shifting from an Uptrend to a Downtrend. In 20 of 50 cases where MSFT's RSI indicator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 40%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossed below the signal line. In 15 of 50 cases where MSFT's MACD histogram became negative, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 30%.

The higher Bollinger Band was broken -- a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which invites the trader to consider selling or shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 22 of 55 cases where MSFT's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 40%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 61%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.07 to 1.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 13 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (13.86) is normal, around the industry mean (17.95). P/E Ratio (37.60) is within average values for comparable stocks, (179.43). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.54) is also within normal values, averaging (5.68). Dividend Yield (1.00) settles around the average of (0.34) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.89) is also within normal values, averaging (12.92).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MSFT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Related Ticker: MSFT

MSFT sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory

On February 22, 2024, the Stochastic Oscillator for MSFT moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In of the 43 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MSFT advanced for three days, in of 349 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 389 cases where MSFT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for MSFT moved out of overbought territory on February 12, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 58 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 58 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 16, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MSFT as a result. In of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MSFT turned negative on February 13, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MSFT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

MSFT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 09, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MSFT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (12.706) is normal, around the industry mean (25.822). P/E Ratio (36.843) is within average values for comparable stocks, (143.171). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.368) is also within normal values, averaging (2.877). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.088) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (13.369) is also within normal values, averaging (75.185).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER), SERVICENOW (NYSE:NOW), Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY).

Industry description

Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Packaged Software Industry is 10.22B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 291 to 3.03T. MSFT holds the highest valuation in this group at 3.03T. The lowest valued company is BLGI at 291.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 3%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1%. PRST experienced the highest price growth at 148%, while IFBD experienced the biggest fall at -92%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was 27%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 100% and the average quarterly volume growth was 56%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 52
P/E Growth Rating: 74
Price Growth Rating: 53
SMR Rating: 83
Profit Risk Rating: 88
Seasonality Score: -37 (-100 ... +100)
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A.I.Advisor
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A.I. Advisor
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General Information

a developer of software and harware products

Industry PackagedSoftware

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Packaged Software
Address
One Microsoft Way
Phone
+1 425 882-8080
Employees
221000
Web
https://www.microsoft.com
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MSFT and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MSFT has been loosely correlated with NOW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MSFT jumps, then NOW could also see price increases.

1D
1W
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1D Price
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MSFT100%
-0.01%
NOW - MSFT
58%
Loosely correlated
-1.61%
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57%
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-1.41%
COIN - MSFT
56%
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+2.72%
CDNS - MSFT
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