Microsoft (MSFT, $235.03) beats fiscal Q1 expectations; disappoints on Q2 revenue guidance
Microsoft earnings for the fiscal first quarter came in at $2.35 per share, beating analysts’ expectations of $2.30 per share (based on Refinitiv poll).
Revenue of $50.12 billion also exceeded the $49.61 billion expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
Revenue from Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud business segment (which includes the Azure public cloud ) was $20.33 billion vs. the $20.36 billion expected by analysts polled by StreetAccount. Azure revenue growth was +35% y/y in the quarter (vs. StreetAccount analysts’ expectation of 36.9% ) , slower than + 40% growth registered in the prior quarter. Amy Hood, the company's finance chief, said on a conference call with analysts that higher energy costs in the quarter hurt the gross margin of Azure (as reported in CNBC).
The Productivity and Business Processes segment (containing Microsoft 365 productivity software subscriptions, LinkedIn and Dynamics) was up +9% y/y to $16.47 billion, vs. the $16.13 billion StreetAccount consensus.
For the fiscal second quarter, Microsoft expects total revenue in the range of $52.35 billion to $53.35 billion – which is below analysts’ forecast of $56.05 billion. Microsoft's implied operating margin for the fiscal second quarter was about 40%, vs. 42% expectation among analysts polled by StreetAccount.
MSFT in downward trend: price may decline as a result of having broken its higher Bollinger Band on May 29, 2026
MSFT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In of the 40 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MSFT as a result. In of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MSFT turned negative on June 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
MSFT moved below its 50-day moving average on June 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MSFT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on June 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MSFT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for MSFT's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 12 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MSFT advanced for three days, in of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 288 cases where MSFT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.583) is normal, around the industry mean (16.756). P/E Ratio (21.878) is within average values for comparable stocks, (65.613). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.133) is also within normal values, averaging (1.733). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.023) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (8.606) is also within normal values, averaging (143.034).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MSFT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a developer of software and harware products
Industry ComputerCommunications
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