Microsoft (MSFT, $235.03) beats fiscal Q1 expectations; disappoints on Q2 revenue guidance
Microsoft earnings for the fiscal first quarter came in at $2.35 per share, beating analysts’ expectations of $2.30 per share (based on Refinitiv poll).
Revenue of $50.12 billion also exceeded the $49.61 billion expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
Revenue from Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud business segment (which includes the Azure public cloud ) was $20.33 billion vs. the $20.36 billion expected by analysts polled by StreetAccount. Azure revenue growth was +35% y/y in the quarter (vs. StreetAccount analysts’ expectation of 36.9% ) , slower than + 40% growth registered in the prior quarter. Amy Hood, the company's finance chief, said on a conference call with analysts that higher energy costs in the quarter hurt the gross margin of Azure (as reported in CNBC).
The Productivity and Business Processes segment (containing Microsoft 365 productivity software subscriptions, LinkedIn and Dynamics) was up +9% y/y to $16.47 billion, vs. the $16.13 billion StreetAccount consensus.
For the fiscal second quarter, Microsoft expects total revenue in the range of $52.35 billion to $53.35 billion – which is below analysts’ forecast of $56.05 billion. Microsoft's implied operating margin for the fiscal second quarter was about 40%, vs. 42% expectation among analysts polled by StreetAccount.
MSFT in +1.40% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on November 28, 2023
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where MSFT advanced for three days, in of 345 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 388 cases where MSFT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MSFT moved out of overbought territory on November 29, 2023. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 57 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 57 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 72 cases where MSFT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on December 01, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MSFT as a result. In of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MSFT turned negative on November 30, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MSFT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
MSFT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 01, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MSFT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (12.887) is normal, around the industry mean (20.967). P/E Ratio (37.037) is within average values for comparable stocks, (158.832). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.316) is also within normal values, averaging (2.583). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.083) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (13.089) is also within normal values, averaging (74.499).
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a developer of software and harware products
Industry PackagedSoftware
MSFT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MSFT has been loosely correlated with NOW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MSFT jumps, then NOW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MSFT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 100% | -1.16% | ||
| NOW - MSFT | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.74% | ||
| ADBE - MSFT | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.24% | ||
| ORCL - MSFT | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.82% | ||
| MANH - MSFT | 57% Loosely correlated | +2.18% | ||
| ANSS - MSFT | 56% Loosely correlated | +0.72% | ||
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