Microsoft (MSFT, $235.03) beats fiscal Q1 expectations; disappoints on Q2 revenue guidance
Microsoft earnings for the fiscal first quarter came in at $2.35 per share, beating analysts’ expectations of $2.30 per share (based on Refinitiv poll).
Revenue of $50.12 billion also exceeded the $49.61 billion expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
Revenue from Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud business segment (which includes the Azure public cloud ) was $20.33 billion vs. the $20.36 billion expected by analysts polled by StreetAccount. Azure revenue growth was +35% y/y in the quarter (vs. StreetAccount analysts’ expectation of 36.9% ) , slower than + 40% growth registered in the prior quarter. Amy Hood, the company's finance chief, said on a conference call with analysts that higher energy costs in the quarter hurt the gross margin of Azure (as reported in CNBC).
The Productivity and Business Processes segment (containing Microsoft 365 productivity software subscriptions, LinkedIn and Dynamics) was up +9% y/y to $16.47 billion, vs. the $16.13 billion StreetAccount consensus.
For the fiscal second quarter, Microsoft expects total revenue in the range of $52.35 billion to $53.35 billion – which is below analysts’ forecast of $56.05 billion. Microsoft's implied operating margin for the fiscal second quarter was about 40%, vs. 42% expectation among analysts polled by StreetAccount.
Momentum Indicator for MSFT turns positive, indicating new upward trend
MSFT saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on April 25, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 91 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 91 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MSFT just turned positive on April 24, 2025. Looking at past instances where MSFT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
MSFT moved above its 50-day moving average on April 25, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MSFT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 02, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MSFT advanced for three days, in of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 316 cases where MSFT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MSFT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
MSFT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 01, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (13.245) is normal, around the industry mean (30.917). P/E Ratio (38.386) is within average values for comparable stocks, (160.020). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.153) is also within normal values, averaging (2.714). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.029) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (13.928) is also within normal values, averaging (59.831).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MSFT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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a developer of software and harware products
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