Mixed signals on Hess as it hits support and gets a bullish signal from Tickeron
Oil producer Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) is hitting several different support points on its chart and it got a bullish signal from the Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine on September 30. While these are positive signs for the short-term outlook, there are some other indicators that are possible concerns for the long term.
Let’s look at the chart first. We see on the daily chart that a trend channel has formed over the last four months and the stock just hit the lower rail of the channel earlier this week before bouncing a little.
The lower rail of the channel was right at the lower Bollinger Band when the stock hit it as well. If we look at the Bollinger Bands we see that the stock moved above the upper rail on September 16 and then pulled back rather abruptly. Now the stock is down at the lower band and actually dipped slightly below it on September 30.
Yet another possible positive sign for the stock is the fact that the daily stochastic readings are in oversold territory and made a bullish crossover on October 1. We saw similar moves at the beginning of June and the beginning of August and both times the stock rallied nicely in the month that followed.
As was mentioned previously, Tickeron’s Trend Prediction Engine generated a bullish signal for Hess on September 30. That signal showed a confidence level of 75% and it calls for a gain of at least 4% within the next month. Previous signals on the stock have been accurate 76% of the time.
While many of the technical indicators point to an upward move, the fundamental indicators are mixed. The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 and that points to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 indicates highest PE growth while a rating of 100 indicates lowest PE growth.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 30 indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. A rating of 1 points to the most undervalued stocks, while a rating of 100 points to the most overvalued stocks. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization.
Both the PE Growth Rating and the Valuation Rating are better than the average stock, but unfortunately there are several other indicators where Hess is below average. The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92, indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. The SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) Rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating for this company is 100, indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. Hess’ unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating for the industry is 97, placing this stock worse than average.
Something that could help Hess move past the few negative indicators is the sentiment toward the stock. There are 26 analysts covering the stock at this time with 11 “buy” ratings, 13 “hold” ratings, and two “sell” ratings. This puts the buy percentage at 42.3% which is well below average and indicates less optimism.
The short interest ratio is at 3.9 at this time and that is above average. Like the analysts’ ratings, the higher short interest ratio also indicates less optimism on Hess than the average stock.
HES's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HES turned positive on January 02, 2025. Looking at past instances where HES's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where HES's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on January 02, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HES as a result. In of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
HES moved above its 50-day moving average on January 08, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HES advanced for three days, in of 352 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
HES may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for HES crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on December 17, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HES declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for HES entered a downward trend on December 31, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HES’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.291) is normal, around the industry mean (4.498). P/E Ratio (34.472) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.693). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (6.419) is also within normal values, averaging (4.890). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.085) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.529) is also within normal values, averaging (159.568).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a producer of crude oil
Industry OilGasProduction