Mixed signals toward Oracle after post-earnings pullback
Tech giant Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) surprised investors earlier this month when it reported earnings a day earlier than expected. The company matched on the bottom line with EPS of $0.81, but it missed on the top line with revenue of $9.21 billion. The company also announced that CEO Mark Hurd would be taking a medical leach of absence. All of this information was a lot for investors to digest and in the end, they sold the stock.
The stock closed at $56.29 on September 11 and Oracle made the announcements after the closing bell that day. The stock would eventually fall to a low of $51.85 on September 18 for a loss of 7.89% in one week. The stock has since bounced back a little and the overbought/oversold indicators seem to have reversed course without even reaching oversold territory.
If you connect the lows from June and August, it creates an upwardly sloped trend line and last week’s low hit right on that trend line before the stock reversed higher. The slope of the line isn’t very steep, but it is upwardly sloped never the less.
Oracle has been slightly better than average in terms of its price performance over the past year. The Relative Strength rating from Investor’s Business Daily is 58 and the Price Growth Rating from Tickeron is 42. Those readings are indicative of steady growth that is slightly better than the average stock.
From a fundamental perspective, Oracle has been better than average. One particular area where the company is far better than most companies is in its management efficiency measurements. The company boasts a return on equity of 38.6% and a profit margin of 40.8%. This helped the company get an SMR rating of 13 from Tickeron. SMR is an acronym that stands for Sales, Margin, and Return on Equity. The rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Another rating from Tickeron that is better than average for Oracle is the Profit vs. Risk Rating. For Oracle, the reading is 38 and that indicates well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock slightly better than average.
One area of concern for Oracle is the Tickeron Valuation Rating. Oracle’s current rating is 74 and that indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. A rating of 1 points to the most undervalued stocks, while a rating of 100 points to the most overvalued stocks. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization.
The sentiment toward Oracle is slightly more bearish than average and that is mainly due to the short interest ratio. The current reading is at 4.0 and that is slightly above average and indicates a little more pessimism toward the stock than the average stock. The average short interest ratio is right around the 3.0 level.
Analysts’ ratings for Oracle fall right in to the average range in terms of the overall buy percentage. There are 34 analysts covering the stock with 24 “buy” ratings, nine “hold” ratings, and one “sell” rating. This puts the buy percentage at 70.6% and that falls right in the middle of the average range from 65% to 75%.
The overall take on Oracle is that it is slightly above average with its fundamental indicators, it has performed slightly better than average in its price performance, and it is slightly better than average in its sentiment readings (from a contrarian viewpoint). What this all suggests to me is that the stock is likely to move with the market—up or down.
ORCL's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ORCL turned positive on January 21, 2025. Looking at past instances where ORCL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 39 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 59 cases where ORCL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ORCL moved out of overbought territory on January 27, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 54 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 04, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ORCL as a result. In of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ORCL moved below its 50-day moving average on January 27, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ORCL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ORCL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on January 21, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ORCL entered a downward trend on January 21, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ORCL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (61.350) is normal, around the industry mean (30.872). P/E Ratio (33.108) is within average values for comparable stocks, (160.113). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.057) is also within normal values, averaging (2.763). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.085) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.720) is also within normal values, averaging (58.109).
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a developer of a diversified line of business software products
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