Mobile phone sales in China drop -20%. Should Apple (AAPL, $182.62) be worried?
China’s mobile phone demand seems to have been hit by a slowing economy and a saturated market.
According to data released Tuesday by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, mobile phone shipments in China plunged almost -20% year-over-year to 14.51 million in February. Smartphones in particular experienced a more than -20% decline in shipments, as revealed by the same study.
While the week-long Chinese New Year holiday could have player a part in weaker demand, what’s probably alarming this time is that 2019 is the worst February since atleast 2013 with regards to phone shipments in China. Factors like macroeconomic sluggishness, a saturated smartphone market and excess inventory could have contributed to the shipment decline in the nation, as indicated by China senior market analyst for IDC, Xi Wang, to CNBC.
The slowing of smartphone shipments in the world's second-largest economy could potentially impact major American or global makers of smartphones. Apple Inc. for example, suffered a nearly -27% year-on-year plunge in its Greater China revenue in the three months ending Dec. 29, 2018. Soon after, major retailers reportedly slashed iPhone prices in China, in a bid to boost demand.
Momentum Indicator for AAPL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
AAPL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on November 14, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 70 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 70 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AAPL just turned positive on November 19, 2024. Looking at past instances where AAPL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
AAPL moved above its 50-day moving average on November 18, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AAPL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 25, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAPL advanced for three days, in of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 363 cases where AAPL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAPL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
AAPL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on December 03, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. AAPL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (35.461) is normal, around the industry mean (85.677). P/E Ratio (26.429) is within average values for comparable stocks, (47.267). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.092) is also within normal values, averaging (1.869). AAPL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.006) as compared to the industry average of (0.025). P/S Ratio (6.925) is also within normal values, averaging (74.200).
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a manufacturer of mobile communication, media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players
Industry ElectronicsAppliances