Despite a 9% drop on the quarterly earnings, Morgan Stanley, the sixth largest U.S. bank, managed to marginally beat analysts’ estimates.
Morgan Stanley's wealth management business salvaged earnings for the quarter, as it accounts for almost half of the bank’s revenue and helps maintain stability during weak periods for trading and investment banking -- the two segments that suffered during the first quarter due to subdued volatility. Besides the resilience of the wealth management sector, the bank also managed to cut non-interest expenses by 4%, which helped boost its bottom line.
MS's two important metrics reported estimate beating results - quarterly profit came at $2.34 billion, or $1.39 per share versus estimate of $1.17 per share; and revenue fell 7% to $10.29 billion versus an estimate of $9.93 billion.
Overall, wealth management proved to be the only sector that could protect margin against an unfavorable backdrop owing to slowing global economy, absence of interest hike this year, and trade disputes between U.S. and China. Despite this scenario, Morgan Stanley’s wealth management profit margin and its return on equity of 13.1% were comfortably within the targeted range. Perhaps this is also the reason why the company’s CEO has not lifted performance targets for wealth management because the business can produce returns of nearly 25% even in difficult times. Wealth management revenue rose slightly from a year ago, with profit margins holding steady at 27%.
In short, Morgan Stanley is in a better position even than its top rival Goldman Sachs Group (GS), which reported a 20% profit decline and lower revenue across nearly all its major businesses, sending its shares down more than 3%.
MS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 31 cases where MS's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 49 cases where MS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 28, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MS as a result. In of 69 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MS just turned positive on February 23, 2024. Looking at past instances where MS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MS advanced for three days, in of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
MS moved below its 50-day moving average on February 05, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on February 08, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.558) is normal, around the industry mean (5.462). P/E Ratio (16.610) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.992). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.043) is also within normal values, averaging (2.546). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.795) is also within normal values, averaging (98.999).
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a provider of diversified financial services including brokerage, investment management and venture capital services
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MS has been closely correlated with GS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MS jumps, then GS could also see price increases.