Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) reported fourth-quarter earnings results yesterday morning and the results disappointed investors. The company was expected to report EPS of $0.90 on revenue of $9.44 billion. The actual results showed EPS of $0.80 on revenue of $8.55 billion.
The revenue streams all fell or came in flat with the exception of investment management which was up 7%. Fixed income trading revenue was down 30% and that has been a theme among the banks that have reported this week—lower fixed income trading revenue. Wealth management revenue fell 6% while equity trading revenue and investment banking revenue came in flat.
Looking at the daily chart of Morgan Stanley we see that the stock has been trending lower within the confines of a downward sloped trend channel. The upper rail connects the highs from March to Wednesday. The stock gapped higher on Wednesday as Goldman Sachs beat investor expectations and investors expected the same from Morgan Stanley.
The stock gapped right back down on Thursday after its own earnings results and that means the stock remains within the channel. We also see that the stock was in overbought territory based on the 10-day RSI and the daily stochastic readings. The RSI moved out of overbought territory after Thursday’s decline and the stochastic readings made a bearish crossover.
The financial sector has lagged the overall market over the past year and banking stocks have lagged the financial sector. Morgan Stanley has lagged the overall market, the financial sector, and the banking industry.
On April 17, 2024, the Stochastic Oscillator for MS moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In of the 52 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over .
MS moved above its 50-day moving average on April 16, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MS advanced for three days, in of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
MS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 299 cases where MS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MS moved out of overbought territory on April 01, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 11, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MS as a result. In of 71 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MS turned negative on April 10, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.694) is normal, around the industry mean (5.403). P/E Ratio (18.056) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.040). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.334) is also within normal values, averaging (2.610). Dividend Yield (0.036) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.039) is also within normal values, averaging (105.664).
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a provider of diversified financial services including brokerage, investment management and venture capital services
Industry InvestmentBanksBrokers