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Sarah Patel's Avatar
published in Blogs
Apr 20, 2022

Netflix (NFLX, $217.17) shares drop -37%, on shocking subscriber loss

Shares of Netflix plunged -37% Wednesday morning, after the streaming giant reported a loss in subscriber count Tuesday evening-- for the first time in more than a decade.

On Tuesday, Netflix posted its first quarter earnings of $3.53, well above the $2.89 expected by analysts polled by a Refinitiv survey of analysts.

The company’s revenue rose +10% year-over-year to $7.87 billion in the quarter, vs. $7.93 billion expected according to a Refinitiv survey of analysts.

But what probably surprised markets the most was the streamer’s global paid net subscriber number that registered a loss of -200,000 compared with 2.73 million adds expected, according to StreetAccount estimates.

The company mentioned that the suspension of its service in Russia resulted in a loss of 700,000 subscribers, and that excluding that impact, it would have experienced 500,000 net additions during the quarter.

Related Ticker: NFLX

Momentum Indicator for NFLX turns positive, indicating new upward trend

NFLX saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on May 08, 2023. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 87 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 87 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NFLX just turned positive on May 09, 2023. Looking at past instances where NFLX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

NFLX moved above its 50-day moving average on May 05, 2023 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NFLX advanced for three days, in of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NFLX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

NFLX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 30, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for NFLX entered a downward trend on May 11, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. NFLX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NFLX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.006) is normal, around the industry mean (4.224). P/E Ratio (42.194) is within average values for comparable stocks, (71.973). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.947) is also within normal values, averaging (2.658). NFLX has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.057). P/S Ratio (5.556) is also within normal values, averaging (111.509).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Walt Disney Company (The) (NYSE:DIS), Paramount Global (NASDAQ:PARA), Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU), iQIYI (NASDAQ:IQ), AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC), HUYA (NYSE:HUYA).

Industry description

Movies/entertainment industry include companies that produce and distribute motion pictures, and companies that operate general entertainment facilities like amusement parks and bowling centers. Some companies in this industry also have professional sports franchises. Live Nation Entertainment, Inc., Liberty Media Corp. and Viacom Inc. are some of the biggest companies in this space.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Movies/Entertainment Industry is 6.61B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 134 to 174.7B. NFLX holds the highest valuation in this group at 174.7B. The lowest valued company is LRDG at 134.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Movies/Entertainment Industry was -2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -9%, and the average quarterly price growth was 5%. UMGP experienced the highest price growth at 31%, while DTTVY experienced the biggest fall at -50%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Movies/Entertainment Industry was 10%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 16% and the average quarterly volume growth was -51%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 51
P/E Growth Rating: 63
Price Growth Rating: 55
SMR Rating: 85
Profit Risk Rating: 89
Seasonality Score: 18 (-100 ... +100)
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Technical Analysis# Of IndicatorsAvg. Odds
   
   
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a provider of online movie rental subscription services

Industry MoviesEntertainment

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Cable Or Satellite TV
Address
121 Albright Way
Phone
+1 408 540-3700
Employees
12800
Web
https://www.netflix.com
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NFLX and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NFLX has been loosely correlated with DIS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if NFLX jumps, then DIS could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To NFLX
1D Price
Change %
NFLX100%
+3.72%
DIS - NFLX
61%
Loosely correlated
-0.53%
NWSA - NFLX
60%
Loosely correlated
+1.29%
NWS - NFLX
59%
Loosely correlated
+1.50%
ROKU - NFLX
54%
Loosely correlated
+3.00%
LYV - NFLX
53%
Loosely correlated
-2.34%
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