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Sep 01, 2020

Netflix (NFLX, $553.76) could have 500 million subscribers by 2030, says RBC

On Tuesday, RBC revealed its expectation that Netflix  subscribers  could reach 500 million by 2030 from the current 193 million .

RBC analyst Mark Mahaney raised his price target on the streaming giant’s shares by 15% to $610 a share. Mahaney affirmed an outperform rating.

According to Mahaney, Netflix can grab 57% market share of global fixed broadband households (excluding China), compared to its 29% share today. 

According to RBC survey, Netflix is experiencing record market share in the U.K., with 72% of respondents viewing content on the streaming platform, compared to the previous record of 67% last August.

In India, 49% of subscribers are also subscribing to Netflix Mobile plans.

In the U.S., Mahaney mentions that the “steady expansion” in U.S. contribution margins bolster the company's profitability, with its fixed-cost content nature and historically declining churn rates suggesting further margin expansions.

Tickeron's analysis shows that  NFLX's in Uptrend: Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Histogram just turned positive

This is a Bullish indicator signaling NFLX's price could rise. Traders may explore going long on the ticker or buying call options. In 36 of 45 cases where NFLX's MACD histogram became positive, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 80%.

Current price $553.76 is above $491.87 the highest resistance line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 07/30/20 - 08/31/20, the price experienced a +9% Uptrend. During the week of 08/24/20 - 08/31/20, the stock enjoyed a +8% Uptrend growth.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator exceeded the 0 level on August 24, 2020. Traders may consider buying the ticker or exploring call options. In 62 of 86 cases where the ticker's Momentum Indicator exceeded 0, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 72%.

The price moved above its 50-day Moving Average, which indicates a change from a Downtrend to an Uptrend. In 28 of 36 similar backtested cases where NFLX's price crossed above its 50-day Moving Average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.

The 10-day Moving Average for this ticker crossed above its 50-day Moving Average on August 25, 2020, which can be construed as a buy signal, indicating that the trend is shifting higher. In 7 of 13 similar cases where NFLX's 10-day Moving Average crossed above its 50-day Moving Average, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 54%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator appears to be shifting from an Uptrend to a Downtrend. In 23 of 41 cases where NFLX's RSI indicator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 56%.

The Stochastic Indicator may be shifting from an Uptrend to a Downtrend. In 37 of 72 cases where NFLX's Stochastic indicator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 51%.

The higher Bollinger Band was broken -- a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which invites the trader to consider selling or shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 36 of 55 cases where NFLX's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 65%.

The Aroon Indicator entered a Downtrend today. In 109 of 141 cases where NFLX Aroon's Indicator entered a Downtrend, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 77%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 61%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.44 to 1.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. NFLX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NFLX's P/B Ratio (25.02) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.05). P/E Ratio (89.34) is within average values for comparable stocks, (76.31). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.58) is also within normal values, averaging (0.58). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (0.40) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.13) is also within normal values, averaging (159.56).

Related Ticker: NFLX

NFLX's MACD Histogram just turned positive

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NFLX turned positive on February 29, 2024. Looking at past instances where NFLX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 14, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NFLX as a result. In of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NFLX advanced for three days, in of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 270 cases where NFLX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NFLX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

NFLX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on March 01, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. NFLX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (13.021) is normal, around the industry mean (5.382). P/E Ratio (51.486) is within average values for comparable stocks, (86.976). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.644) is also within normal values, averaging (2.893). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.125) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (8.258) is also within normal values, averaging (4.153).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Walt Disney Company (The) (NYSE:DIS), Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU), Paramount Global (NASDAQ:PARA), iQIYI (NASDAQ:IQ), AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC), HUYA (NYSE:HUYA).

Industry description

Movies/entertainment industry include companies that produce and distribute motion pictures, and companies that operate general entertainment facilities like amusement parks and bowling centers. Some companies in this industry also have professional sports franchises. Live Nation Entertainment, Inc., Liberty Media Corp. and Viacom Inc. are some of the biggest companies in this space.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Movies/Entertainment Industry is 8.78B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 134 to 268.03B. NFLX holds the highest valuation in this group at 268.03B. The lowest valued company is LRDG at 134.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Movies/Entertainment Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 3%. GOAI experienced the highest price growth at 152%, while ICABY experienced the biggest fall at -44%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Movies/Entertainment Industry was -37%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -25% and the average quarterly volume growth was -39%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 52
P/E Growth Rating: 60
Price Growth Rating: 57
SMR Rating: 83
Profit Risk Rating: 87
Seasonality Score: -6 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: TECHNOLOGY ETFs
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a provider of online movie rental subscription services

Industry MoviesEntertainment

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Cable Or Satellite TV
Address
121 Albright Way
Phone
+1 408 540-3700
Employees
13000
Web
https://www.netflix.com
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NFLX and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor tells us that NFLX and ROKU have been poorly correlated (+32% of the time) for the last year. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is low statistical probability that NFLX and ROKU's prices will move in lockstep.

1D
1W
1M
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6M
1Y
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Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To NFLX
1D Price
Change %
NFLX100%
+2.72%
ROKU - NFLX
32%
Poorly correlated
+0.27%
BOWL - NFLX
29%
Poorly correlated
+5.94%
NWSA - NFLX
26%
Poorly correlated
-2.05%
NWS - NFLX
26%
Poorly correlated
-2.11%
AMC - NFLX
23%
Poorly correlated
+0.93%
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