Netflix (NFLX, $553.76) could have 500 million subscribers by 2030, says RBC

On Tuesday, RBC revealed its expectation that Netflix  subscribers  could reach 500 million by 2030 from the current 193 million .

RBC analyst Mark Mahaney raised his price target on the streaming giant’s shares by 15% to $610 a share. Mahaney affirmed an outperform rating.

According to Mahaney, Netflix can grab 57% market share of global fixed broadband households (excluding China), compared to its 29% share today. 

According to RBC survey, Netflix is experiencing record market share in the U.K., with 72% of respondents viewing content on the streaming platform, compared to the previous record of 67% last August.

In India, 49% of subscribers are also subscribing to Netflix Mobile plans.

In the U.S., Mahaney mentions that the “steady expansion” in U.S. contribution margins bolster the company's profitability, with its fixed-cost content nature and historically declining churn rates suggesting further margin expansions.

Tickeron's analysis shows that  NFLX's in Uptrend: Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Histogram just turned positive

This is a Bullish indicator signaling NFLX's price could rise. Traders may explore going long on the ticker or buying call options. In 36 of 45 cases where NFLX's MACD histogram became positive, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 80%.

Current price $553.76 is above $491.87 the highest resistance line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 07/30/20 - 08/31/20, the price experienced a +9% Uptrend. During the week of 08/24/20 - 08/31/20, the stock enjoyed a +8% Uptrend growth.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator exceeded the 0 level on August 24, 2020. Traders may consider buying the ticker or exploring call options. In 62 of 86 cases where the ticker's Momentum Indicator exceeded 0, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 72%.

The price moved above its 50-day Moving Average, which indicates a change from a Downtrend to an Uptrend. In 28 of 36 similar backtested cases where NFLX's price crossed above its 50-day Moving Average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.

The 10-day Moving Average for this ticker crossed above its 50-day Moving Average on August 25, 2020, which can be construed as a buy signal, indicating that the trend is shifting higher. In 7 of 13 similar cases where NFLX's 10-day Moving Average crossed above its 50-day Moving Average, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 54%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator appears to be shifting from an Uptrend to a Downtrend. In 23 of 41 cases where NFLX's RSI indicator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 56%.

The Stochastic Indicator may be shifting from an Uptrend to a Downtrend. In 37 of 72 cases where NFLX's Stochastic indicator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 51%.

The higher Bollinger Band was broken -- a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which invites the trader to consider selling or shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 36 of 55 cases where NFLX's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 65%.

The Aroon Indicator entered a Downtrend today. In 109 of 141 cases where NFLX Aroon's Indicator entered a Downtrend, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 77%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 61%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.44 to 1.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. NFLX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NFLX's P/B Ratio (25.02) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.05). P/E Ratio (89.34) is within average values for comparable stocks, (76.31). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.58) is also within normal values, averaging (0.58). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (0.40) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.13) is also within normal values, averaging (159.56).

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