GET DAILY SIGNALSNewmont (NEM) Delivers Record Q3 Earnings on Strong Gold Prices
Key Takeaways
- Newmont reported third-quarter adjusted net income of $2.3 billion, or $2.20 per diluted share, a record for a third quarter and above Wall Street estimates of roughly $1.95 to $2.05 per share.
- Quarterly revenue reached $6.36 billion, topping the consensus estimate of about $6.24 billion, supported by higher gold sales volumes and stronger realized copper prices.
- The company improved its full-year 2026 cost outlook, lowering its gold by-product AISC (All-In Sustaining Costs, the total cost to sustain each ounce of production) guidance to $1,520 per ounce.
- Newmont generated $1.9 billion in free cash flow and returned $1.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, while holding a net cash position of $3.2 billion.
- Attributable gold production slipped to 1.30 million ounces from 1.42 million a year earlier, though the company reiterated its full-year production guidance of 5.3 million ounces.
Putting the Quarter in Context
As the world’s largest gold miner, NEM acts as an important indicator for the precious-metals sector overall. This report landed during a particularly strong stretch for gold, which averaged roughly $4,204 per ounce in the third quarter, up about 17.6% from a year earlier. That price strength helped lift revenue across the industry. I was watching to see whether NEM could turn those higher prices into stronger cash flow and shareholder returns while holding costs in check. The quarter also tested operational resilience after a seismic event at the Cadia mine earlier in the year and maintenance work at other sites. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Breaking Down the Reported Results
NEM posted third-quarter revenue of $6.36 billion, ahead of the consensus estimate of about $6.24 billion, and reported adjusted net income of $2.3 billion, or $2.20 per diluted share. That figure beat analyst expectations, which ranged from roughly $1.95 to $2.05 per share. Reported net income attributable to shareholders came in at $2.5 billion, or $2.35 per diluted share, up from $1.83 billion a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA reached $4.0 billion.
On the cost side, gold by-product CAS fell 20% to $832 per ounce, while gold by-product AISC declined 10% to $1,454 per ounce. Average realized gold price was $4,317 per ounce, down slightly from the prior quarter but well above the $3,539 per ounce realized a year ago. Attributable gold production dipped to 1.30 million ounces from 1.42 million ounces in the prior-year period, partly reflecting planned maintenance at Lihir and Boddington. The company generated $2.8 billion in cash from operating activities and $1.9 billion in free cash flow, and ended the quarter with $8.8 billion in cash and a net cash position of $3.2 billion. NEM also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share.
How the Market Responded
Despite the earnings and revenue beat, NEM shares traded lower on the day of the report, closing around $114 and slipping more than 2%, according to market data. The muted reaction highlights a familiar pattern for gold miners: investors had already priced in much of the benefit from elevated gold prices, and attention quickly shifted to forward-looking concerns. Production fell year over year, and the company signaled that costs are likely to rise again in the near term, with fourth-quarter gold by-product AISC guided to roughly $1,900 per ounce. A softer realized gold price compared with earlier in 2026 also weighed on sentiment, as did guidance suggesting higher costs in 2027.
What to Watch Going Forward
NEM reaffirmed its full-year 2026 attributable gold production guidance of 5.3 million ounces and said the fourth quarter is expected to be its strongest of the year. The company also improved its cost guidance, lowering full-year gold by-product CAS to $925 per ounce and AISC to $1,520 per ounce, reflecting ongoing cost discipline and higher co-product pricing.
Looking further ahead, several catalysts stand out. The Tanami Expansion 2 project in Australia is advancing ahead of schedule, with commercial production now expected in the first half of 2027. NEM also provided an update on the Red Chris Block Cave project in Canada, which is moving toward a full-funds investment decision in early 2027. Separately, the amended Nevada Gold Mines joint-venture agreement with Barrick includes a planned $1.95 billion payment expected in the fourth quarter.
Cost trends and capital spending will remain central. Management has pointed to higher costs ahead as maintenance investments rise and as some operations, such as Peñasquito, see lower silver volumes. With gold prices moderating from their 2026 highs, the market will be watching whether NEM can sustain its free-cash-flow generation and per-share shareholder returns while executing on its development pipeline.
Integrating AI Tools into My Research
When analyzing earnings-driven names like NEM, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter peers by fundamentals, technical patterns, and recent performance. It helps surface comparable ideas without hours of manual work and keeps my watchlist focused on what actually matters for the sector.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
NEM in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026
The 10-day moving average for NEM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
NEM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NEM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for NEM entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NEM as a result. In 61 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NEM just turned positive on October 19, 2026. Looking at past instances where NEM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 46 of 60 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Following a +6.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NEM advanced for three days, in 252 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
NEM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NEM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.503) is normal, around the industry mean (2.031). P/E Ratio (14.721) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-16.536). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.781) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.341) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.144) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
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General Information
a company which explores and mines for gold and silver
Industry PreciousMetals
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