Nike (NKE) Earnings Preview: Gauging Turnaround Signs After a -40% Slide in 2026
Key Takeaways
- Nike is scheduled to report fiscal first-quarter 2027 results after the market close on Thursday, October 1, for the quarter ended August 31, 2026.
- Wall Street consensus calls for revenue of roughly $11.3 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of about $0.43 to $0.44, both below the year-ago period.
- Management has guided for a low-to-mid-single-digit revenue decline for the quarter, with gross margin expected to be only slightly positive.
- Weakness in Greater China and soft Nike Direct and digital sales remain the biggest watch items heading into the report.
- Shares are down more than 40% in 2026 and trading near multi-year lows, leaving investor sentiment cautious.
Why This Report Matters for the Turnaround
Nike's fiscal first-quarter update serves as an important checkpoint for the turnaround strategy under CEO Elliott Hill. The company finished fiscal 2026 with essentially flat full-year revenue and a 3% drop in net income, as softer demand in Greater China and a promotional retail environment outweighed pockets of strength in North America and wholesale. I am looking for indications that the "Win Now" plan is stabilizing operations, especially since last quarter's results benefited from a one-time tariff-related item. With the stock near multi-year lows and estimates still being adjusted lower, this release will show whether the cautious guidance and margin recovery story hold up.
To compare NKE with peers in the sector, I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener.
Analyst Forecasts and Guidance
Analysts surveyed by LSEG expect Nike to report adjusted EPS of about $0.43 on revenue of approximately $11.32 billion, according to a CNBC preview. Zacks Consensus Estimates peg revenue near $11.4 billion, implying a year-over-year decline of about 2.7%, and EPS of $0.44, down roughly 10% from $0.49 a year ago. Management has guided for first-quarter revenue to decline in the low-to-mid-single-digit range, with gross margin only slightly positive versus the prior year.
Investors will focus beyond the top-line numbers on Greater China, where sales fell 17% on a constant-currency basis last quarter, as well as Nike Direct and digital trends, which have lagged while wholesale channels stabilized. Inventory levels and the pace of promotional markdowns will also draw attention, along with any updates to full-year fiscal 2027 guidance and the gross-margin recovery timeline.
Investor Sentiment and Recent Stock Performance
Sentiment ahead of the report is cautious. NKE shares have fallen more than 40% in 2026 and trade near levels not seen in over a decade, underperforming a broader market that has advanced this year. In late September, Bank of America downgraded the stock to Underperform and cut its price target to $30 from $47, citing a potentially longer recovery timeline and continued pressure in China. Other firms have trimmed estimates and targets in recent weeks, reflecting weak U.S. footwear demand and caution among retail partners.
Nike has beaten EPS expectations in each of its last four quarters, yet the stock has still struggled, showing how much weight investors place on forward guidance and demand signals over headline beats. A further cut to fiscal 2027 guidance or signs of accelerating China deterioration could renew selling pressure, while any evidence of stabilizing demand or earlier-than-expected margin expansion could provide relief to an oversold stock.
Key Factors to Monitor Ahead
Looking ahead, investors should track whether management reaffirms or adjusts its fiscal 2027 outlook. Management previously signaled that sales were expected to remain "flattish" through the first two quarters, with revenue pressure concentrated in the first half before improving later in the year.
China remains the single largest swing factor. Nike has acknowledged that marketplace cleanup efforts and reduced sell-in will continue to weigh on revenue, and any update on the pace of that reset will shape expectations for the remainder of the fiscal year. Investors will also watch whether Sportswear and Jordan Streetwear show signs of stabilization, given that these categories have been a drag on growth.
Finally, cost and margin trends deserve close attention. The company's gross-margin recovery is expected to begin in the first quarter as it laps prior tariff pressures, but elevated promotions and a planned CFO transition add uncertainty. With an investor day scheduled for November, this earnings report may set the tone for management's longer-term roadmap.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when preparing for earnings like this one. It lets me quickly filter stocks by technical patterns, fundamentals, and industry trends, helping surface comparable names in consumer goods and footwear far faster than manual checks. The tool has become a regular part of how I assess momentum shifts before reports like Nike’s.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
NKE in -1.93% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 01, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where NKE declined for three days, in 237 of 333 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Aroon Indicator for NKE entered a downward trend on October 01, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NKE's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 41 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NKE just turned positive on September 24, 2026. Looking at past instances where NKE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 21 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
Following a +1.17% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NKE advanced for three days, in 152 of 274 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
NKE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 6 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.631) is normal, around the industry mean (2.589). P/E Ratio (17.329) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.101). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.427) is also within normal values, averaging (0.949). NKE has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.045) as compared to the industry average of (0.022). P/S Ratio (1.142) is also within normal values, averaging (1.777).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NKE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NKE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a maker of athletic footwear and apparel
Industry WholesaleDistributors
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