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Oracle (ORCL, $77.22) shares fall, on lower-than-expected guidance
Oracle shares dropped -5% in extended trading on Tuesday, despite earnings beat. It provided a lower-than-expected guidance on quarterly revenue. The computer tech company also expressed plans to boost capital expenditures for cloud computing workloads.
Adjusted earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter came in at $1.54 per share, beating the $1.31 per share expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
Revenue for the quarter rose +8% year-over-year (vs. +3% in the prior quarter) to $11.23 billion, compared to $11.04 billion as expected by analysts (according to Refinitiv). Revenue growth got a boost from base effect since the prior-year quarter revenue fell around -6% amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Revenue from the cloud services and license support business was $7.39 billion, up +8% and above the FactSet consensus estimate of $7.32 billion. According to the company, revenue from its second-generation cloud infrastructure doubled in the quarter.
The cloud license and on-premises license segment generated $2.14 billion in revenue, growing +9% and beating consensus estimate of $2.05 billion.
The company’s hardware revenue fell -2% to $882 million, in line with analysts’ estimates.
Looking ahead, Oracle is expecting adjusted earnings of 94 cents to 98 cents in per share for the fiscal first quarter, vs. $1.03 per share projected by analysts polled by Refinitiv. The company forecasts 3% to 5% revenue growth for that quarter, vs. 3% revenue growth estimated by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.
According to Oracle, it expects to roughly double its cloud capex spending in FY 2022 to nearly $4 billion. “We are confident that the increased return in the cloud business more than justifies this increased investment, and our margins will expand over time,” CEO Safra Catz said.
ORCL in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on April 22, 2022
ORCL moved below its 50-day Moving Average on April 22, 2022 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 26 of 47 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
Current price $69.69 crossed the resistance line at $75.78 and is trading between $75.78 resistance and $62.94 support lines. Throughout the month of 04/13/22 - 05/16/22, the price experienced a -13% Downtrend. During the week of 05/09/22 - 05/16/22, the stock fell -3%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 07, 2022. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ORCL as a result. In 37 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ORCL turned negative on April 08, 2022. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 23 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 52%.
The 10-day Moving Average for ORCL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on April 26, 2022. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ORCL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
The Aroon Indicator for ORCL entered a downward trend on May 16, 2022. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ORCL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Stochastic Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 15 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ORCL advanced for three days, in 188 of 347 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
ORCL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 67%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.3.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (16.471). P/E Ratio (27.174) is within average values for comparable stocks, (154.393). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.709) is also within normal values, averaging (4.591). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.027) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.824) is also within normal values, averaging (124.500).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ORCL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
The average market capitalization across the Packaged Software Industry is 6.2B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 580 to 2T. MSFT holds the highest valuation in this group at 2T. The lowest valued company is NANN at 580.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was -0.92%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -15.48%, and the average quarterly price growth was -24.67%. LAAB experienced the highest price growth at 126%, while SGNI experienced the biggest fall at -97.03%.
- 4/27/22 5:34 AM: Oracle (ORCL, $74.51) was a top loser this week, declining -6.35%
- 3/16/22 5:12 AM: Oracle (ORCL, $80.6) was a top weekly gainer, with a +9.91% jump
- 3/3/22 7:26 AM: Oracle (ORCL, $78.28) was a top weekly gainer, with a +8.02% jump
The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was 19.51%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 113.57% and the average quarterly volume growth was 41.15%
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Stocks in the group have a Negative Outlook today, backed by the MA50MA10 Indicator. Tickeron has a negative outlook on this group and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 58%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.21.
5 stocks in the group of tickers confirmed the negative outlook based on the MA50 indicator with average odds of 76%.
The average market capitalization across the group is 1.4B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 26.4M to 3.8B. TDC holds the highest valuation in this group at 3.8B. The lowest valued company is BSQR at 26.4M.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the group was 1.34%. For the same group, the average monthly price growth was -14.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was -27.46%. MGIC experienced the highest price growth at 9.5%, while SPSC experienced the biggest fall at -8.78%.
- 5/10/22 5:36 AM: Smith Micro Software (SMSI, $2.61) is a top weekly loser for penny stocks, falling -17.67%
- 3/23/22 4:50 AM: TERADATA (TDC, $49.41) was a top weekly gainer, with a +11.01% jump. Expect an Uptrend reversal
- 3/16/22 5:11 AM: Smith Micro Software (SMSI, $3) is a top weekly loser for penny stocks, falling -21.67%
The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the group was -32.3%. For the same stocks of the group, the average monthly volume growth was 125.8% and the average quarterly volume growth was 157.97%
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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