Oracle (ORCL, $77.22) shares fall, on lower-than-expected guidance
Oracle shares dropped -5% in extended trading on Tuesday, despite earnings beat. It provided a lower-than-expected guidance on quarterly revenue. The computer tech company also expressed plans to boost capital expenditures for cloud computing workloads.
Adjusted earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter came in at $1.54 per share, beating the $1.31 per share expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
Revenue for the quarter rose +8% year-over-year (vs. +3% in the prior quarter) to $11.23 billion, compared to $11.04 billion as expected by analysts (according to Refinitiv). Revenue growth got a boost from base effect since the prior-year quarter revenue fell around -6% amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Revenue from the cloud services and license support business was $7.39 billion, up +8% and above the FactSet consensus estimate of $7.32 billion. According to the company, revenue from its second-generation cloud infrastructure doubled in the quarter.
The cloud license and on-premises license segment generated $2.14 billion in revenue, growing +9% and beating consensus estimate of $2.05 billion.
The company’s hardware revenue fell -2% to $882 million, in line with analysts’ estimates.
Looking ahead, Oracle is expecting adjusted earnings of 94 cents to 98 cents in per share for the fiscal first quarter, vs. $1.03 per share projected by analysts polled by Refinitiv. The company forecasts 3% to 5% revenue growth for that quarter, vs. 3% revenue growth estimated by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.
According to Oracle, it expects to roughly double its cloud capex spending in FY 2022 to nearly $4 billion. “We are confident that the increased return in the cloud business more than justifies this increased investment, and our margins will expand over time,” CEO Safra Catz said.
ORCL's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ORCL turned positive on May 25, 2023. Looking at past instances where ORCL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 04, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ORCL as a result. In of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ORCL advanced for three days, in of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 334 cases where ORCL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ORCL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ORCL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 25, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ORCL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (31.500). P/E Ratio (34.965) is within average values for comparable stocks, (167.496). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.078) is also within normal values, averaging (4.150). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.086) is also within normal values, averaging (75.690).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
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General Information
a developer of a diversified line of business software products
Industry PackagedSoftware
ORCL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ORCL has been loosely correlated with SNPS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ORCL jumps, then SNPS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ORCL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 100% | -0.12% | ||
| SNPS - ORCL | 57% Loosely correlated | -1.14% | ||
| CDNS - ORCL | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.16% | ||
| ROP - ORCL | 56% Loosely correlated | +1.34% | ||
| ADBE - ORCL | 54% Loosely correlated | +2.25% | ||
| ANSS - ORCL | 54% Loosely correlated | +0.54% | ||
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