Pattern in Wayfair’s Chart is Similar to First Quarter
Online retailer Wayfair (NYSE: W) has been on a bit of a roller coaster ride in the last six months. The stock jumped sharply from the beginning of May through the end of September, gaining over 135% during that span. For comparison purposes, the S&P gained just over 10% during the same timeframe.
From the end of September through November 19, the stock dropped 44% and has since bounced back. Unfortunately, the stock is hitting resistance at it 50-day moving average.
What really caught my eye about this setup was how similar it was to the setup in late February and early March. The stock had gone a nice run from November ’17 through mid-February, gaining almost 70% along the way. The stock then dropped sharply and rallied back up to its 50-day moving average. The 50-day acted as resistance in mid-March and the stock fell over 27% in three weeks.
A similar decline this time would take the stock down to the $80 area.
Something that could hurt Wayfair in its attempt to move back above the trendline are its fundamental ratings. The company has a negative profit margin, a negative operating margin, negative return on assets, and a negative return on equity. The company has been able to grow its sales, but that hasn’t translated in to earnings growth, in fact earnings have been declining.
It’s hard to justify buying a stock with all those negative fundamentals.
W's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for W turned positive on July 02, 2025. Looking at past instances where W's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for W moved above the 200-day moving average on July 09, 2025. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where W advanced for three days, in of 286 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 190 cases where W Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for W moved out of overbought territory on July 11, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where W declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
W broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 02, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. W’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (4.245). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (50.470). W's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.427). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.099) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.601) is also within normal values, averaging (6.569).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. W’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an online home furnishing store
Industry InternetRetail
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