Pattern in Wayfair’s Chart is Similar to First Quarter
Online retailer Wayfair (NYSE: W) has been on a bit of a roller coaster ride in the last six months. The stock jumped sharply from the beginning of May through the end of September, gaining over 135% during that span. For comparison purposes, the S&P gained just over 10% during the same timeframe.
From the end of September through November 19, the stock dropped 44% and has since bounced back. Unfortunately, the stock is hitting resistance at it 50-day moving average.
What really caught my eye about this setup was how similar it was to the setup in late February and early March. The stock had gone a nice run from November ’17 through mid-February, gaining almost 70% along the way. The stock then dropped sharply and rallied back up to its 50-day moving average. The 50-day acted as resistance in mid-March and the stock fell over 27% in three weeks.
A similar decline this time would take the stock down to the $80 area.
Something that could hurt Wayfair in its attempt to move back above the trendline are its fundamental ratings. The company has a negative profit margin, a negative operating margin, negative return on assets, and a negative return on equity. The company has been able to grow its sales, but that hasn’t translated in to earnings growth, in fact earnings have been declining.
It’s hard to justify buying a stock with all those negative fundamentals.
W in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on February 05, 2026
The 10-day moving average for W crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on February 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
W moved below its 50-day moving average on January 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where W declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for W entered a downward trend on March 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where W's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 37 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 64 cases where W's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on March 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on W as a result. In of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for W just turned positive on March 04, 2026. Looking at past instances where W's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where W advanced for three days, in of 285 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
W may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. W’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (93.026). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (38.102). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.854). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.049) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.783) is also within normal values, averaging (13.193).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. W’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 95, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an online home furnishing store
Industry InternetRetail
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