Pattern in Wayfair’s Chart is Similar to First Quarter
Online retailer Wayfair (NYSE: W) has been on a bit of a roller coaster ride in the last six months. The stock jumped sharply from the beginning of May through the end of September, gaining over 135% during that span. For comparison purposes, the S&P gained just over 10% during the same timeframe.
From the end of September through November 19, the stock dropped 44% and has since bounced back. Unfortunately, the stock is hitting resistance at it 50-day moving average.
What really caught my eye about this setup was how similar it was to the setup in late February and early March. The stock had gone a nice run from November ’17 through mid-February, gaining almost 70% along the way. The stock then dropped sharply and rallied back up to its 50-day moving average. The 50-day acted as resistance in mid-March and the stock fell over 27% in three weeks.
A similar decline this time would take the stock down to the $80 area.
Something that could hurt Wayfair in its attempt to move back above the trendline are its fundamental ratings. The company has a negative profit margin, a negative operating margin, negative return on assets, and a negative return on equity. The company has been able to grow its sales, but that hasn’t translated in to earnings growth, in fact earnings have been declining.
It’s hard to justify buying a stock with all those negative fundamentals.
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Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
W's RSI Indicator recovers from overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for W moved out of overbought territory on August 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In of the 37 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 20, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on W as a result. In of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for W turned negative on August 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where W declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
W broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 62 cases where W's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for W moved above the 200-day moving average on August 12, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +3 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where W advanced for three days, in of 280 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. W’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (30.049). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (44.171). W's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.345). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.079) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.023) is also within normal values, averaging (1.454).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. W’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an online home furnishing store
Industry InternetRetail
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