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Dec 06, 2018
Pattern in Wayfair’s Chart is Similar to First Quarter

Pattern in Wayfair’s Chart is Similar to First Quarter

Online retailer Wayfair (NYSE: W) has been on a bit of a roller coaster ride in the last six months. The stock jumped sharply from the beginning of May through the end of September, gaining over 135% during that span. For comparison purposes, the S&P gained just over 10% during the same timeframe.

From the end of September through November 19, the stock dropped 44% and has since bounced back. Unfortunately, the stock is hitting resistance at it 50-day moving average.

What really caught my eye about this setup was how similar it was to the setup in late February and early March. The stock had gone a nice run from November ’17 through mid-February, gaining almost 70% along the way. The stock then dropped sharply and rallied back up to its 50-day moving average. The 50-day acted as resistance in mid-March and the stock fell over 27% in three weeks.

A similar decline this time would take the stock down to the $80 area.

Something that could hurt Wayfair in its attempt to move back above the trendline are its fundamental ratings. The company has a negative profit margin, a negative operating margin, negative return on assets, and a negative return on equity. The company has been able to grow its sales, but that hasn’t translated in to earnings growth, in fact earnings have been declining.

It’s hard to justify buying a stock with all those negative fundamentals.

Related Ticker: W

Contributor

Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.


W in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026

W moved above its 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 31 of 35 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 51 of 62 cases where W's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for W just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where W's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.

Following a +3.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where W advanced for three days, in 222 of 277 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.

W may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 193 of 236 cases where W Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 82%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on W as a result. In 72 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where W declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. W’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-17.861) is normal, around the industry mean (56.916). W's P/E Ratio (147.059) is considerably higher than the industry average of (37.255). W's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (23.500) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.774). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.040) is also within normal values, averaging (1.321).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. W’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA), PDD Holdings (NASDAQ:PDD), eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY), JD.com (NASDAQ:JD), Wayfair (NYSE:W), Chewy (NYSE:CHWY), Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE:VIPS), Revolve Group (NYSE:RVLV), Jumia Technologies AG (NYSE:JMIA).

Industry description

The internet retail industry includes companies that sell products and services through the Internet. With more and more consumers using online retailers, the companies have seen a big increase in the use of their services. Some of the companies in the group are focused on selling business-to-business products and services. Others sell business-to-consumer products and services. Internet retailers offer a wide variety of products like books, apparel, and electronics. Some companies even specialize in only one or two categories. One potentially critical factor for players to thrive in this space is the quality and speed of product delivery. This requires an investment in efficient distribution networks. Things like logistics are important factors in the success in the extremely competitive industry. For a company to stay relevant in the industry it must have effective pricing strategies and upgraded websites. The websites must be easy to navigate and engaging for customers. In addition to the revenues generated from straight sales, internet retailers can generate revenue from subscription fees and advertising. Amazon.com, Inc., Alibaba Group, and JD.com are some of the global leaders.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Internet Retail Industry is 85.84B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 585 to 2.66T. AMZN holds the highest valuation in this group at 2.66T. The lowest valued company is PIKM at 585.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Internet Retail Industry was -3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -13%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15%. OCG experienced the highest price growth at 15%, while MI experienced the biggest fall at -45%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Internet Retail Industry was 22%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 41% and the average quarterly volume growth was -33%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 54
P/E Growth Rating: 70
Price Growth Rating: 66
SMR Rating: 76
Profit Risk Rating: 94
Seasonality Score: 9 (-100 ... +100)
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published General Information

General Information

an online home furnishing store

Industry InternetRetail

Industry
Internet Retail
Address
4 Copley Place
Phone
+1 617 532-6100
Employees
12800
Web
https://www.wayfair.com
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Pattern in Wayfair’s Chart is Similar to First Quarter