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published in Blogs
Oct 02, 2019
TickeronGET DAILY SIGNALS
Paychex (PAYX, $64.32) Beats Earnings and Revenue Estimates in Q2

Paychex (PAYX, $64.32) Beats Earnings and Revenue Estimates in Q2

Paychex Inc. registered earnings of 65 cents a share in the second quarter, which is +18% higher than year-ago period’s per share earnings. The payroll & human resources company generated adjusted earnings of  65 cents per share, surpassing analysts’ expectation of 63 cents per share (as polled by Refinitiv). For fiscal 2019, the company projects its adjusted earnings per share to increase in the range of 11-12% - an upward revision from its initial guidance of a 7- 8% increase.

Paychex’s revenue climbed +7% year-over-year to touch $858.9 million in the second quarter. That’s higher than analysts’ estimate of $858.3 million. Its guidance for fiscal 2019 total revenue growth is in the range of 6-7%.

Related Ticker: PAYX

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.


PAYX's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PAYX turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where PAYX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.

The 10-day moving average for PAYX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.

Following a +3.01% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAYX advanced for three days, in 167 of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 119 of 233 cases where PAYX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 51%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for PAYX moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 13 of the 28 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 46%.

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PAYX as a result. In 41 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.

PAYX moved below its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAYX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.

PAYX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PAYX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (10.771) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.151). P/E Ratio (22.246) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.524). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.848) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.042) settles around the average of (0.075) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.452) is also within normal values, averaging (71.128).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PAYX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock better than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Shopify Inc (NASDAQ:SHOP), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER), ServiceNow Inc. (NYSE:NOW), Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG), Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK), Atlassian Corp (NASDAQ:TEAM), Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY).

Industry description

Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Packaged Software Industry is 11.02B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 39 to 270.16B. SAP holds the highest valuation in this group at 270.16B. The lowest valued company is STIXF at 39.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was -2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -2%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1%. AEYE experienced the highest price growth at 74%, while HODO experienced the biggest fall at -35%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was 3%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 4% and the average quarterly volume growth was -43%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 51
P/E Growth Rating: 58
Price Growth Rating: 58
SMR Rating: 77
Profit Risk Rating: 93
Seasonality Score: 10 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a provider of payroll processing and other human resources services

Industry PackagedSoftware

Industry
Data Processing Services
Address
911 Panorama Trail South
Phone
+1 585 385-6666
Employees
17600
Web
https://www.paychex.com
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