Paychex (PAYX, $95.25) beats fiscal Q3 expectations; but has year-over-year declines
Payroll management company Paychex beat fiscal-third-quarter earnings expectations. However, it experienced year-over-year decline in fiscal-third-quarter earnings and revenue.
For the three months ended Feb. 28, adjusted earnings came in at 96 cents a share, compared with 97 cents in the year-ago quarter. Analysts polled by FactSet expected 92 cents a share.
Revenue fell -2.6% year-over-year to $1.11 billion, in line with analysts’ estimates.
"Client retention remains strong and at record levels, and our results for the third quarter show that our resilient business model has helped us navigate the uncertainties created by COVID-19," President and Chief Executive Martin Mucci said in a statement.
Looking ahead, Paychex expects both revenue and adjusted earnings per share to range between flat with to down -2% in fiscal 2021.
PAYX saw its Stochastic Oscillator peaks and leaves the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for PAYX moved out of overbought territory on May 25, 2023. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 63 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In of the 63 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 30, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PAYX as a result. In of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
PAYX moved below its 50-day moving average on May 25, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAYX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
PAYX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 22, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PAYX just turned positive on May 10, 2023. Looking at past instances where PAYX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAYX advanced for three days, in of 351 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 362 cases where PAYX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PAYX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.377) is normal, around the industry mean (7.834). P/E Ratio (25.840) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.810). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.637) is also within normal values, averaging (1.977). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. PAYX's P/S Ratio (7.905) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.496).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a provider of payroll processing and other human resources services
Industry PersonnelServices
PAYX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PAYX has been closely correlated with ADP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PAYX jumps, then ADP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PAYX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYX | 100% | -0.77% | ||
| ADP - PAYX | 88% Closely correlated | -1.11% | ||
| NSP - PAYX | 61% Loosely correlated | -0.05% | ||
| RHI - PAYX | 58% Loosely correlated | -1.08% | ||
| MAN - PAYX | 57% Loosely correlated | -0.46% | ||
| BBSI - PAYX | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.04% | ||
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