Abhoy Sarkar's Avatar
Abhoy Sarkar
published in Blogs
Sep 06, 2020
Peloton (PTON, $80.63) reportedly launching cheaper treadmill and new bike

Peloton (PTON, $80.63) reportedly launching cheaper treadmill and new bike

Peloton Interactive  is reportedly gearing up for the launch of a cheaper treadmill and a high-end bike, according to Bloomberg.

The exercise equipment /media company’s new treadmill, called Tread, will cost less than $3,000, compared with $4,295 for the existing model, Bloomberg reported. Tread will be smaller in size and have a cheaper belt design like most other treadmills in the market compared with the current model’s slat design, Bloomberg said, citing people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named.

The current treadmill will be renamed the “Tread+”, and continue to be sold as a high-end product of the company.

A new bike, called Bike+, will likely be more expensive than the existing $2,245 model. Peloton will then slash the price of the existing machine to less than $1,900.

According to the Bloomberg report, Peloton is also preparing bootcamp training classes for its bikes.

The company might officially announce the launch of the new products as early as next week, ahead of quarterly results scheduled for Sept. 10.

Tickeron's analysis: 

PTON enters an Uptrend as Momentum Indicator exceeded the 0 level on August 25, 2020

This indicator signals that PTON's price has momentum to move higher, since its current price moved above its price 14 days ago. Traders may consider buying the ticker or exploring call options. In 14 of 14 cases where PTON's Momentum Indicator exceeded 0, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.

Current price $80.63 is above $64.36 the highest resistance line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 08/05/20 - 09/04/20, the price experienced a +13% Uptrend. During the week of 08/28/20 - 09/04/20, the stock enjoyed a +6% Uptrend growth.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) just turned positive. Considering data from situations where PTON's MACD histogram became positive, in 7 of 7 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 55 of 56 similar cases where PTON Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator appears to be shifting from an Uptrend to a Downtrend. In 6 of 6 cases where PTON's RSI indicator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 90%.

The Stochastic Indicator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day Decline, the ticker is projected to fall further. Considering data from situations where PTON declined for three days, in 26 of 41 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 63%.

The higher Bollinger Band was broken -- a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which invites the trader to consider selling or shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 5 of 9 cases where PTON's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 56%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 83%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.79 to 1.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PTON’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: PTON's P/B Ratio (14.99) is slightly higher than the industry average of (4.81). P/E Ratio (0.00) is within average values for comparable stocks, (93.89). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.00) is also within normal values, averaging (2.27). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (0.58) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.17) is also within normal values, averaging (7.62).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PTON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock worse than average.

 

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