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Sep 11, 2020

Peloton (PTON, $84.71) beats fiscal Q4 earnings and revenue expectations

Peloton  reported fiscal year 2020 Q4 earnings that surpassed analysts’ estimates.

The online fitness/workout company’s adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.27, beating expectations of $0.10 per share.

Revenues of $607.1 million exceeded expectations of $582.5 million.

Peloton’s Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $143.6 million yielded an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.7%.

The company's gross margins expanded +275bps year-over-year to 47.6%.

Connected Fitness subscription base grew +113% during the quarter to over 1 million.

CEO Jill Woodworth said, “We're proud of how quickly we have achieved our profitability, but our priorities are unchanged. We will continue to invest aggressively in new product development, scaling our manufacturing capabilities, introducing new software features and adding more fitness and wellness programming in order to capitalize on what we believe is a massive global market opportunity.”

Tickeron's analysis shows: 

Momentum Indicator for PTON turns positive, indicating new upward trend

PTON saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on August 25, 2020. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 14 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 14 of the 14 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 90%.

Current price $84.71 is above $64.36 the highest resistance line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 08/10/20 - 09/10/20, the price experienced a +31% Uptrend, while the week of 09/02/20 - 09/10/20 shows a -4% Downtrend.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PTON just turned positive on August 28, 2020. Looking at past instances where PTON's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 7 of 7 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

Following a +13.07% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PTON advanced for three days, in 57 of 62 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 56 of 56 cases where PTON Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for PTON moved out of overbought territory on September 10, 2020. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 6 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 6 of the 6 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 90%.

The Stochastic Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where Apple declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.

PTON broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 28, 2020. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 84%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.18 to 1.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PTON’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: PTON's P/B Ratio (16.32) is slightly higher than the industry average of (4.75). P/E Ratio (0.00) is within average values for comparable stocks, (92.86). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.00) is also within normal values, averaging (2.27). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (0.57) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.17) is also within normal values, averaging (7.62).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PTON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.

Related Ticker: PTON

PTON in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on April 04, 2024

PTON may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 30 cases where PTON's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for PTON's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 28, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PTON as a result. In of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PTON turned negative on April 03, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 41 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PTON declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for PTON entered a downward trend on April 15, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. PTON’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (86.957) is normal, around the industry mean (44.676). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (53.688). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.522). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.559) is also within normal values, averaging (6.968).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PTON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG), YETI Holdings (NYSE:YETI), Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON), MasterCraft Boat Holdings (NASDAQ:MCFT).

Industry description

The Leisure and Recreation Products industry includes companies offering recreational goods/services such as video games, swimming pools, golf courses, boats, outdoor spaces etc. Since these are mainly geared towards consumers, strong employment conditions and healthy incomes generally augur well for the recreational products industry. Some of the largest market caps in this space belong to video game developers (e.g. Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts and Take-two Interactive), and toy /board game makers (like Hasbro).

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Recreational Products Industry is 4.92B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 5.94K to 63.42B. OLCLY holds the highest valuation in this group at 63.42B. The lowest valued company is CLUBQ at 5.94K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Recreational Products Industry was -3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 12%. CNXA experienced the highest price growth at 272%, while GDHG experienced the biggest fall at -32%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Recreational Products Industry was 41%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -11% and the average quarterly volume growth was 18%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 55
P/E Growth Rating: 58
Price Growth Rating: 81
SMR Rating: 73
Profit Risk Rating: 83
Seasonality Score: 9 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

an interactive fitness platform, which engages in the operation of in-studio fitness classes, fitness clubs, at-home fitness equipment & content and health & wellness apps

Industry RecreationalProducts

Profile
Fundamentals
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Address
441 Ninth Avenue
Phone
+1 917 671-9198
Employees
2765
Web
https://www.onepeloton.com
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