Penn National Gaming trending lower and a bearish signal was just generated
Most gaming stocks have been underperforming the overall market for the last six months. Ongoing concerns about the trade war and the unrest in Hong Kong have taken their toll on casino operators around the world. Even with the group as a whole underperforming, Penn National Gaming (Nasdaq: PENN) has performed worse than its peers. The stock is down over 20% in the past six months while the S&P is up just over 5% during the same time period.
Looking at the daily chart we see that there is a trend channel that has formed over the last six months and it defines the cyclical moves within the overall downward trend. The upper rail connects the highs from March, April, and May. The stock did move above the upper rail in August, but it wasn’t able to close above the trend line. The parallel lower rail connects a number of lows over the last six months. The stock is hovering just below the upper rail at this time.
We also see on the chart that the daily stochastic readings are in overbought territory and just made a bearish crossover on September 4. Over the last few months when the indicators have made bearish crossovers, it has been a sign of moves to the downside—especially when the indicators were in overbought territory at the time of the crossover.
In addition to the bearish crossover from the stochastic readings, the Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal on Penn National Gaming on September 3. The signal showed a confidence level of 86% and past predictions on the stock have been successful 69% of the time. The signal calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month.
The fundamentals for Penn National are mixed. Earnings have declined on a year over year basis in each of the last two quarters. In the most recent quarterly report the earnings declined by 23% compared to the previous year. Analysts expect earnings for 2019 as a whole to decline slightly.
Another concern regarding Penn National’s fundamentals is the profit margin. The margin is currently at 2.5% which is well below the profit margin for most companies and lower than the industry average.
On the positive side, sales have been growing by 11% per year over the last three years and they were up by 60% in the most recent quarter. The return on equity is also above average at 28.4%.
Looking at the Tickeron Fundamental Analysis Overview we see that the Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating for Penn National Gaming is 73, indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PENN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility.
Like the fundamentals, the sentiment toward Penn National Gaming is mixed. Analysts are overly bullish on the stock with 12 of 13 analysts rating the stock as a “buy”. The other analyst has the stock rated as a “hold”. This puts the buy percentage at 92.3% and that is much higher than the buy percentage for an average stock. It is particularly concerning to see such optimism for a stock that has been trending lower and a company that hasn’t been performing all that well.
The short interest ratio is well above average at 4.9 and that is indicative of extreme pessimism. While the ratio is high currently, the ratio has declined in recent months. The current reading is from the mid-August report and it is down from the mid-July reading of 9.8.
PENN's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PENN turned positive on June 04, 2025. Looking at past instances where PENN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 04, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PENN as a result. In of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
PENN moved above its 50-day moving average on June 05, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PENN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 09, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PENN advanced for three days, in of 263 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 196 cases where PENN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PENN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
PENN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 26, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PENN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.870) is normal, around the industry mean (12.790). P/E Ratio (4.474) is within average values for comparable stocks, (65.598). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.008) is also within normal values, averaging (1.549). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.077) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.437) is also within normal values, averaging (3.547).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PENN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an operator of gaming and pari-mutuel properties
Industry CasinosGaming
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