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Powell wants asset tapering to begin this year
On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that he was one of the majority of Fed officials who believe the central bank can taper bond purchases this year.
In his Jackson Hole speech, Powell revealed that at the FOMC’s July meeting, he, along with most of the participants, opined that if the economy evolved broadly as anticipated, it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year.
Powell said that the Fed's "substantial further progress" test on inflation had been met, adding "clear progress" had been made on a return to maximum employment.
The Fed is currently buying $80 billion of Treasurys and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month.
Powell did not mention when the Fed might formally announce the taper. Officials are divided about whether to announce it at their meeting on Sept. 20-21 or wait until November. The Fed chairman also didn’t specify the pace of the tapering.
GOVT's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for GOVT entered a downward trend on May 13, 2022. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 195 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 88 of the 195 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 45%.
Current price $24.05 crossed the resistance line at $24.02 and is trading between $25.88 resistance and $24.02 resistance lines. Throughout the month of 04/12/22 - 05/13/22, the price experienced a -1% Downtrend, while the week of 05/06/22 - 05/13/22 shows a +0.90% Uptrend.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 27, 2022. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GOVT as a result. In 32 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 37%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GOVT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 34%.
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GOVT's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 9 of 36 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 25%.
The Stochastic Indicator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 18 of 58 cases where GOVT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 31%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GOVT just turned positive on May 09, 2022. Looking at past instances where GOVT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 16 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 32%.
Following a +0.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GOVT advanced for three days, in 106 of 281 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 38%.
GOVT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 1.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 70%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.07.
The investment seeks to track the investment results of the ICE U.S. Treasury Core Bond Index (the "underlying index"). The fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index and will invest at least 90% of its assets in U.S. Treasury securities that BFA believes will help the fund track the underlying index. The underlying index includes publicly-issued U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity greater than one year and less than or equal to thirty years and have $300 million or more of outstanding face value.
Stocks in the group have a Positive Outlook today, backed by the BollingerBands Indicator. Tickeron has a positive outlook on this group and predicts a further increase by more than 1.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 41%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.07.
2 stocks in the group of tickers confirmed the positive outlook based on the RSI indicator with average odds of 51%.
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