Powell wants asset tapering to begin this year
On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that he was one of the majority of Fed officials who believe the central bank can taper bond purchases this year.
In his Jackson Hole speech, Powell revealed that at the FOMC’s July meeting, he, along with most of the participants, opined that if the economy evolved broadly as anticipated, it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year.
Powell said that the Fed's "substantial further progress" test on inflation had been met, adding "clear progress" had been made on a return to maximum employment.
The Fed is currently buying $80 billion of Treasurys and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month.
Powell did not mention when the Fed might formally announce the taper. Officials are divided about whether to announce it at their meeting on Sept. 20-21 or wait until November. The Fed chairman also didn’t specify the pace of the tapering.
Aroon Indicator for GOVT shows an upward move is likely
GOVT's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on July 02, 2025. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 181 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 181 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GOVT just turned positive on May 29, 2025. Looking at past instances where GOVT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 59 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
GOVT moved above its 50-day moving average on June 17, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GOVT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 17, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GOVT advanced for three days, in of 278 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for GOVT moved out of overbought territory on July 01, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 24 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GOVT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
GOVT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 24, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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Category IntermediateGovernment
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