Progressive Dips Below Lower Rail of Its Channel, But Bounces Off of 52-Week Moving Average
The stock of insurance provider Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) has doubled in price in the last two years. It has been one of the most consistent climbers during that span. The gain is pretty impressive when you consider that the S&P 500 is only up 25% over the same time period.
The stock has slipped in the last few weeks, which caused it to drop below the lower rail of a trend channel that seemed to be guiding the stock higher over the last few years. Despite falling below the lower rail, the stock appears to have found support at its 52-week moving average earlier this week and has since bounced back.
The oscillators have moved sharply lower over the last few weeks and they are now at their lowest levels since July. The 10-week RSI dipped to the 40 level and the weekly stochastic readings have dipped below the 50 level for only the second time in the last two years. When the indicators were this low in July, the stock bounced off the lower rail of the channel and then jumped approximately 20% in a few months.
Progressive has some pretty impressive fundamentals to go along with the technical performance. Earnings jumped by 313% in the most recent quarter compared to the same period a year ago. Analysts expect earnings to grow by 88% for the year as a whole.
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PGR sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for PGR moved above the 200-day moving average on July 20, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on August 19, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PGR as a result. In of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PGR just turned positive on August 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where PGR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
PGR moved above its 50-day moving average on August 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PGR advanced for three days, in of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for PGR crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on August 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PGR declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
PGR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 52, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. PGR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: PGR's P/B Ratio (3.713) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.151). P/E Ratio (11.003) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.711). PGR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (62.598) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (8.336). PGR's Dividend Yield (0.063) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.022). P/S Ratio (1.414) is also within normal values, averaging (1.598).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a provider of automobile and casualty insurance services
Industry PropertyCasualtyInsurance
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