PulteGroup hits lower rail of trend channel ahead of earnings
Homebuilder PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM) is set to release earnings on January 29, and the stock hit two layers of support ahead of the earnings report. The first layer of support comes from its 50-day moving average, and the second layer is the lower rail of an upwardly sloped trend channel.
The trend channel formed after the stock reached a low in October and then jumped rather abruptly toward the end of the month. The stock dipped slightly in December and if you connect the lows from then and October you get the lower rail of the channel. The parallel upper rail connects the highs from October, November, and early January.
The three lows that form the lower rail could also be called a Three Rising Valleys formation.
The Tickeron AI Prediction tool generated a bullish signal three days ago and the signal came with a 75% confidence level. Past predictions on Pulte have been successful 78% of the time.
Something else that stood out about Pulte is its fundamental performance. The stock scores a 96 on Investor’s Business Daily’s EPS rating scale and an A in the SMR rating system. The company has seen earnings grow by a rate of 38% per year over the last three years while sales have grown at a rate of 19%. The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 7.5.
PHM saw its Stochastic Oscillator peaks and leaves the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for PHM moved out of overbought territory on October 02, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 69 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In of the 69 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PHM moved out of overbought territory on September 25, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 03, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PHM as a result. In of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PHM turned negative on October 02, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PHM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
PHM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 13, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PHM advanced for three days, in of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 311 cases where PHM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 55%.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 51, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PHM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.407) is normal, around the industry mean (7.196). P/E Ratio (10.105) is within average values for comparable stocks, (103.177). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.329) is also within normal values, averaging (1.437). PHM has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.006) as compared to the industry average of (0.044). P/S Ratio (1.631) is also within normal values, averaging (88.859).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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General Information
a company which engages in the homebuilding business
Industry Homebuilding