QXO (QXO): What to Expect from Q1 2026 Earnings After Beacon Acquisition
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect QXO to report a Q1 2026 EPS loss of $0.10, wider than the $0.03 loss in Q1 2025.
- Consensus revenue forecast stands at $1.73 billion, up dramatically from $13.5 million in the year-ago quarter.
- QXO has beaten EPS estimates in the last three quarters, with surprises ranging from 5.6% to 171%.
- Key focus: Integration progress post-Beacon acquisition and updates on Kodiak deal closing early Q2 2026.
- Earnings slated for after market close on May 14, 2026, with conference call May 15.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
As the largest publicly traded distributor of roofing, waterproofing, and complementary building products in North America, QXO, Inc. is in the midst of aggressive expansion following its April 2025 acquisition of Beacon Roofing Supply. This transaction effectively transformed the company from a software firm into a building products powerhouse, with 2025 revenue reaching $6.84 billion. Q1 2026 represents the first full quarter of stabilized post-acquisition operations, which makes it particularly important for evaluating integration success, margin trends, and the execution of tech-enabled efficiencies. From what I see, this report will provide investors with valuable insights into seasonal demand in the construction sector, ongoing M&A momentum—including the pending $2.25 billion acquisition of Kodiak Building Partners—and the path to profitability despite GAAP losses driven by amortization costs. In a fragmented market exceeding $200 billion, QXO's results could offer a window into broader industry health.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street's consensus calls for an EPS of -$0.10 for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, based on input from 11 analysts, compared to the reported -$0.03 in Q1 2025 (adjusted figures exclude one-time items). On the revenue side, the consensus forecast is $1.73 billion (with a range of $1.72B-$1.78B from 12 analysts), marking a massive increase from $13.5 million a year earlier, primarily due to Beacon's full-quarter contribution.
One thing that stands out is how investors will be paying close attention to adjusted EBITDA margins, which came in at 6.9% in Q4 2025, along with any inventory adjustments from acquisitions and gross margins in the context of building product pricing. QXO has a track record of delivering EPS beats: Q4 2025 adjusted at $0.02 (meeting the estimate), Q3 at $0.14 (beating by 16.7%), and Q2 at $0.11 (beating by 175%). Stock reactions have been relatively muted so far, with shares dipping 1.3% after Q4 results despite being in line. I think updates on Kodiak integration and the full-year outlook could significantly influence sentiment.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Heading into these Q1 earnings, sentiment around QXO feels cautiously optimistic, supported by the company's recent beat streak and its robust M&A pipeline. Shares are trading in the $18.50-$19 range, off from recent peaks amid broader market volatility and risks tied to acquisition integration. Options pricing suggests a modest expected move of ±2.7%-4.4% following the release. Key risks include softer construction demand, margin pressures from inventory fair value steps (which are expected to be fully recognized in 2025), and potential delays in the Kodiak closing. That said, positive surprises on adjusted metrics or guidance could drive upside, much like the post-earnings gain seen in Q3.
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Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking beyond Q1, the focus for QXO in 2026 will center on its trajectory, particularly with the Kodiak acquisition slated to close in early Q2. I’m watching this closely, as the deal is expected to triple the addressable market to over $200 billion and lift the EBITDA run-rate above $1 billion within 10 months, proving highly accretive to earnings.
Investors should keep an eye on integration milestones for both Beacon and Kodiak, such as cross-selling initiatives, private label expansion, and tech upgrades aimed at improving the customer experience. Adjusted EBITDA margins will be telling for operational leverage, especially after Q4 2025's 6.9% on $2.19 billion in sales. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock stacks up against industry peers.
Seasonal roofing demand, commodity costs, and housing starts will play a role in performance, as will capital allocation with $2.4 billion in cash at the end of Q4 supporting further M&A in this fragmented distribution landscape. Full-year consensus points to $11.5 billion in revenue and improving profitability, with EPS expected to turn positive. Upcoming catalysts include the Kodiak close, Q2 results, and proxy updates on TopBuild interest.
Disclaimer
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QXO's Stochastic Oscillator is sitting in oversold zone for 2 days
Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where QXO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 35 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QXO advanced for three days, in of 267 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
QXO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QXO as a result. In of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for QXO turned negative on June 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 40 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
The 10-day moving average for QXO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for QXO moved below the 200-day moving average on May 11, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QXO declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for QXO entered a downward trend on May 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.237) is normal, around the industry mean (4.988). P/E Ratio (1.751) is within average values for comparable stocks, (151.762). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.045) is also within normal values, averaging (2.030). QXO has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.020). P/S Ratio (1.246) is also within normal values, averaging (1.591).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. QXO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. QXO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a company that engages in the acquisition and build-out of technology and software companies
Industry ElectronicsDistributors
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