Rigetti Computing (RGTI): What to Expect from Q1 2026 Earnings
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q1 2026 revenue of approximately $4.1 million, a significant jump from $1.5 million in Q1 2025.
- Consensus EPS estimate is a loss of $0.04 per share, improving from -$0.08 in the year-ago quarter.
- Rigetti's $590 million cash position supports its 108-qubit and 150+ qubit systems targeted for 2026 deployment.
- $5.7 million in Novera QPU orders expected to contribute revenue in H1 2026.
- Investors watching for updates on Ankaa-3 fidelity and commercial traction amid lumpy revenue patterns.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
In the emerging field of full-stack quantum computing, companies like RGTI often see investor focus shift toward technological milestones rather than immediate financial results. As we approach the Q1 2026 earnings report, covering January to March, it's worth noting the context from Q4 2025: revenue came in at $1.9 million due to timing issues with system deliveries, but the company closed with a strong $590 million cash position, offering substantial runway. This report will be key in assessing progress on commercializing quantum processing units like Novera, especially with partnerships such as the $8.4 million C-DAC deal in play. From what I see, any revenue beats from the backlog could indicate scaling toward quantum advantage, while fidelity updates would reinforce the roadmap against competitors like IonQ and D-Wave.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street is looking for Q1 2026 revenue of around $4.1 million, with estimates ranging from $3.2 million to $6.2 million, more than doubling the $1.5 million from Q1 2025—largely thanks to Novera shipments and government contracts. The consensus EPS stands at -$0.04 across seven analysts, a narrowing of losses from -$0.08 a year earlier, as operating expenses are managed alongside R&D spending. I'll be paying close attention to gross margins (which were 35% in Q4 2025), cash burn rates, and visibility into bookings from the $5.7 million in Novera orders set for H1 delivery. Revenue has historically been lumpy—for instance, Q4 2025 missed expectations at $1.9 million versus $2.3 million anticipated—but non-GAAP EPS has met or beaten lately. Stock reactions have been mixed, down after 9 of 12 reports by an average of -0.6% on day one, though longer-term performance tends to improve with tech advancements. Guidance could shed light on full-year 2026 revenue growth toward the estimated $23 million.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into these earnings feels cautiously optimistic. Shares in RGTI are up about 80% over the past year, fueled by roadmap excitement, though they've dipped 15% year-to-date amid broader macro concerns and peer volatility. Options are pricing in roughly an 18% move post-report. On the risk side, delivery delays or margin squeezes from lower-margin government contracts could lead to misses, similar to the post-earnings drop in Q4 2025 despite an EPS beat. Bulls are focused on Novera traction, while bears highlight the road to profitability.
Discovering Opportunities with Tickeron’s AI Screener
One tool I’ve found helpful in evaluating stocks like RGTI is Tickeron’s AI Screener. It’s an AI-powered platform for scanning stocks and ETFs based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI signals, allowing customizable filters like industry, market cap, indicators, and performance metrics. This makes it easier to spot trade ideas, breakout candidates, and opportunities in areas like quantum tech compared to manual screening. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
With $590 million in cash, Rigetti has the resources to pursue its 2026 roadmap without immediate dilution concerns, which is crucial for execution. Key items on my watchlist include the 108-qubit Cepheus system deployment under the $8.4 million C-DAC contract and the 150+ qubit target by year-end, with aims for 99.7% two-qubit fidelity.
The Novera backlog provides solid near-term revenue visibility, with half anticipated in Q1 and Q2 2026, which could drive growth above 200% year-over-year if margins hold above 35%. The broader pipeline features Air Force and NQCC contracts, and I'm watching for new commercial wins from enterprise pilots.
One thing that stands out is how U.S. quantum initiatives and global partnerships—like the UK expansion—could boost demand, though cash burn remains a factor given R&D intensity. In my view, balanced progress on fidelity and sales will determine the path to multi-year scaling. This is important because it underscores the potential in quantum computing for patient investors.
Disclaimer
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
RGTI in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026
RGTI moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 28 of 29 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on RGTI as a result. In 76 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for RGTI turned negative on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 83%.
The 10-day moving average for RGTI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RGTI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Aroon Indicator for RGTI entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +4.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RGTI advanced for three days, in 220 of 255 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
RGTI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.901) is normal, around the industry mean (7.321). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (51.117). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (23.994). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.004) among similar stocks. RGTI's P/S Ratio (370.370) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (51.774).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. RGTI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. RGTI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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