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published in Blogs

May 15, 2023

$ROST in Upward Trend: Price Expected to Rise as It Breaks Its Lower Bollinger Band

ROST in Upward Trend: Price Expected to Rise as It Breaks Its Lower Bollinger Band on May 10, 2023

The recent movement of Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) has grabbed the attention of technical analysts and investors alike. On May 10, 2023, ROST broke through its lower Bollinger Band—a trend indicator suggesting a potential upward price swing.

Bollinger Band Analysis

Bollinger Bands, a technical analysis tool developed by John Bollinger, are a set of trendlines plotted two standard deviations (positively and negatively) away from a simple moving average of a security's price. When a price breaks below the lower Bollinger Band, it is often seen as an oversold signal that could precede a price rebound.

ROST recently broke its lower Bollinger Band, which could indicate an upcoming rally. The expectation is that ROST may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. This move could provide an appealing opportunity for traders to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Historical Performance

Historical performance also supports this prediction. In 33 of 41 cases where ROST's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. This indicates an 80% chance of a continued upward trend, a substantial probability that could entice bullish investors.

Earnings Results and Market Sentiment

Despite the technical analysis pointing towards an upward trend, it is always crucial to consider the broader market sentiment and the company's financial health. As of the most recent earnings release, ROST demonstrated robust performance, further reinforcing the positive outlook.

Market sentiment towards ROST has also been positive, further strengthening the case for a bullish outlook. The company's strong brand, effective supply chain management, and ability to offer competitive prices have made it a favorite among value-conscious consumers, especially in an environment where inflationary pressures are increasing.

ROST's recent price action, supported by historical performance and robust earnings, suggests a potential upward trend. As always, investors should consider their investment goals, risk tolerance, and market conditions before making investment decisions.

However, given the strong technical and fundamental signals, ROST appears to be an interesting candidate for those looking to capitalize on potential short-term price movements. As always, while the odds favor a rise, it's essential to manage risk effectively and consider a variety of factors when making investment decisions.

Related Ticker: ROST

ROST in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on May 23, 2023

ROST moved below its 50-day moving average on May 23, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 49 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 65 cases where ROST's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 22, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ROST as a result. In of 97 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ROST turned negative on May 23, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ROST declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for ROST entered a downward trend on May 26, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ROST advanced for three days, in of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

ROST may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ROST's P/B Ratio (8.203) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.471). P/E Ratio (22.989) is within average values for comparable stocks, (111.843). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.646) is also within normal values, averaging (4.392). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.041) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.690).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ROST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX), lululemon athletica (NASDAQ:LULU), Gap (The) (NYSE:GPS), Foot Locker (NYSE:FL), Abercrombie & Fitch Co (NYSE:ANF), Guess (NYSE:GES), Stitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX).

Industry description

Companies in the apparel and/or footwear retail industry sell clothing, accessories and footwear, for different age groups and genders. The industry’s product categories could range from basics, such as underwear, to luxury items. Some retailers source items from wholesalers or an apparel brand to sell in their stores; some others are licensed to make and market their own retail goods under particular brands. Several companies outsource production of clothing to developing/emerging economies where labor costs are relatively inexpensive. Apparel retail is often influenced by fashion trends, and many companies feel the need to adapt to what’s “in vogue” to retain customers and attract new ones. A major disruption in this industry has been the burgeoning trend in digital shopping – to compete with rapidly growing e-commerce, even traditional retail players are upping the ante on their online platforms. Much of the products’ performance in apparel/footwear retail is cyclical, i.e., economic boom times encourage consumer spending, while recessions induce thriftiness among people. Some large-cap U.S. apparel/footwear retail companies include TJX Companies Inc., Ross Stores, Inc., Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Burlington Stores, Inc.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Apparel/Footwear Retail Industry is 10.09B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 256K to 104.3B. IDEXY holds the highest valuation in this group at 104.3B. The lowest valued company is DESTQ at 256K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Retail Industry was -2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -6%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7%. ANF experienced the highest price growth at 31%, while GCO experienced the biggest fall at -36%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Retail Industry was -19%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 137% and the average quarterly volume growth was 167%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 51

P/E Growth Rating: 46

Price Growth Rating: 65

SMR Rating: 57

Profit Risk Rating: 80

Seasonality Score: 20 (-100 ... +100)

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