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Rick Johnson's Avatar
published in Blogs
Mar 26, 2023

SM Energy (SM, $26.28) was a top loser this quarter, falling -25.3%. Expect a Downtrend continuation

SM Energy (SM) has been experiencing a rough time over the last three months, with its stock price falling by -25.3% to $26.28 per share. This puts SM in the top losers' category for the quarter, which is a cause for concern for investors who hold SM shares. A.I.dvisor analyzed 315 stocks in the Oil & Gas Production Industry for the same period, and the results showed that 87.5% of them exhibited a downtrend, indicating that SM is not alone in this situation.

Furthermore, A.I.dvisor analyzed 381 cases when SM's price dropped by 15% within three months, and in 195 out of those cases, the stock price went down during the following month. Based on this historical data, the odds of a downtrend continuation for SM are 51%. 

However, there is a glimmer of hope for SM investors as the stock's RSI Oscillator moved out of oversold territory on March 20, 2023. This suggests that the stock may be shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. 

To back up this idea, A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances when the RSI Indicator moved out of oversold territory, and in 30 of those cases, the stock price moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 86%, which is a good sign for traders looking for a potential buying opportunity.

While SM Energy (SM) has experienced a significant decline in stock price over the last three months, there may be hope for investors as the stock's RSI Oscillator moved out of oversold territory. However, investors should remain cautious as historical data indicates that there is a higher likelihood of a downtrend continuation for the stock. 

Related Ticker: SM

SM in downward trend: price expected to drop as it breaks its higher Bollinger Band on May 22, 2023

SM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 22, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In of the 46 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 64 cases where SM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

SM moved below its 50-day moving average on May 25, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for SM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on April 26, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for SM entered a downward trend on May 19, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 22, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SM as a result. In of 98 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SM just turned positive on May 17, 2023. Looking at past instances where SM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SM advanced for three days, in of 278 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.993) is normal, around the industry mean (5.892). P/E Ratio (2.610) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.477). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.109) is also within normal values, averaging (55.806). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.089) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.075) is also within normal values, averaging (152.639).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. SM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock worse than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), Canadian Natural Resources Limited (NYSE:CNQ), Occidental Petroleum Corp (NYSE:OXY), Pioneer Natural Resource Co (NYSE:PXD), Hess Corp (NYSE:HES), Devon Energy Corp (NYSE:DVN), Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG), Marathon Oil Corp (NYSE:MRO), EQT Corp (NYSE:EQT).

Industry description

The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Oil & Gas Production Industry is 3.27B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 3.28K to 123.24B. COP holds the highest valuation in this group at 123.24B. The lowest valued company is PSTRQ at 3.28K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Oil & Gas Production Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -4%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9%. AXAS experienced the highest price growth at 599%, while BUENF experienced the biggest fall at -37%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Oil & Gas Production Industry was 17%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -3% and the average quarterly volume growth was -90%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 54
P/E Growth Rating: 76
Price Growth Rating: 55
SMR Rating: 60
Profit Risk Rating: 79
Seasonality Score: 15 (-100 ... +100)
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Technical Analysis# Of IndicatorsAvg. Odds
   
   
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a developer of natural gas and crude oil properties

Industry OilGasProduction

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Oil And Gas Production
Address
1700 Lincoln Street
Phone
+1 303 861-8140
Employees
539
Web
https://sm-energy.com
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SM and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SM has been closely correlated with MUR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SM jumps, then MUR could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To SM
1D Price
Change %
SM100%
-3.34%
MUR - SM
88%
Closely correlated
-2.52%
MRO - SM
88%
Closely correlated
-1.81%
MTDR - SM
88%
Closely correlated
-2.77%
OVV - SM
87%
Closely correlated
-3.51%
MGY - SM
87%
Closely correlated
-2.11%
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