SM Energy (SM, $26.28) was a top loser this quarter, falling -25.3%. Expect a Downtrend continuation
SM Energy (SM) has been experiencing a rough time over the last three months, with its stock price falling by -25.3% to $26.28 per share. This puts SM in the top losers' category for the quarter, which is a cause for concern for investors who hold SM shares. A.I.dvisor analyzed 315 stocks in the Oil & Gas Production Industry for the same period, and the results showed that 87.5% of them exhibited a downtrend, indicating that SM is not alone in this situation.
Furthermore, A.I.dvisor analyzed 381 cases when SM's price dropped by 15% within three months, and in 195 out of those cases, the stock price went down during the following month. Based on this historical data, the odds of a downtrend continuation for SM are 51%.
However, there is a glimmer of hope for SM investors as the stock's RSI Oscillator moved out of oversold territory on March 20, 2023. This suggests that the stock may be shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend.
To back up this idea, A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances when the RSI Indicator moved out of oversold territory, and in 30 of those cases, the stock price moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 86%, which is a good sign for traders looking for a potential buying opportunity.
While SM Energy (SM) has experienced a significant decline in stock price over the last three months, there may be hope for investors as the stock's RSI Oscillator moved out of oversold territory. However, investors should remain cautious as historical data indicates that there is a higher likelihood of a downtrend continuation for the stock.
SM's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SM turned positive on January 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where SM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on January 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SM as a result. In of 103 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SM moved above its 50-day moving average on January 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on January 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SM advanced for three days, in of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 246 cases where SM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.066) is normal, around the industry mean (11.857). P/E Ratio (3.330) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.695). SM's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (10.593) is slightly higher than the industry average of (4.387). Dividend Yield (0.038) settles around the average of (0.071) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.741) is also within normal values, averaging (208.865).
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General Information
a developer of natural gas and crude oil properties
Industry OilGasProduction
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