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Apr 08, 2019
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Starbucks (SBUX, $74.60) slides on analyst downgrade to "neutral" from "buy", despite higher price target

Starbucks (SBUX, $74.60) slides on analyst downgrade to "neutral" from "buy", despite higher price target

Starbucks shares slid around -1.2% in pre-market Monday, following a downgrade by a UBS analyst.

Analyst Dennis Geiger lowered rating on the coffeehouse-chain’s stock to “neutral” from “buy”. However, he bumped up his price target on the stock to $78 a share from $72, owing to the company's $2 billion share buyback program and a modest increase in its fiscal 2020 earnings per share estimate. But he cautioned against what he perceives are risks from "downside to more elevated sales/earnings expectations as an offset."

Geiger cited firming same-store-sales momentum and streamlined operations as factors he considers as strong positives for Starbucks.

Related Ticker: SBUX

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.


SBUX in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026

The 10-day moving average for SBUX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SBUX as a result. In 47 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SBUX just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where SBUX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.

SBUX moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a +2.40% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SBUX advanced for three days, in 172 of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.

SBUX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for SBUX moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 70%.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SBUX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.

The Aroon Indicator for SBUX entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. SBUX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 54 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-15.400) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.425). P/E Ratio (59.925) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.492). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.128) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.048) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.901) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SBUX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD), Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ:SBUX), Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM), Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG), Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI), Yum China Holdings (NYSE:YUMC), Dominos Pizza Inc (NASDAQ:DPZ), Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK), Noodles & Co (NASDAQ:NDLS).

Industry description

The industry includes companies that operate full-service restaurants, fast food restaurants, cafeterias and snack bars. McDonald`s Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, YUM! Brands, Inc. and Restaurant Brands International Inc. are some of the largest U.S. restaurant-owning companies in terms of market capitalization. While restaurant spending could be viewed as discretionary for consumers, some companies in the business have been able to weather economic cycles by establishing strong loyalty among customers over the years. Many of them also have a strong global presence as well.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Restaurants Industry is 9.95B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.6K to 182.66B. MCD holds the highest valuation in this group at 182.66B. The lowest valued company is HLTY at 1.6K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Restaurants Industry was 7%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 8%, and the average quarterly price growth was 6%. NDLS experienced the highest price growth at 33%, while ARCO experienced the biggest fall at -17%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Restaurants Industry was 26%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 16% and the average quarterly volume growth was 2%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 49
P/E Growth Rating: 48
Price Growth Rating: 53
SMR Rating: 68
Profit Risk Rating: 84
Seasonality Score: 16 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a producer of coffee and tea

Industry Restaurants

Industry
Restaurants
Address
2401 Utah Avenue South
Phone
+1 206 447-1575
Employees
381000
Web
https://www.starbucks.com
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Starbucks (SBUX, $74.60) slides on analyst downgrade to "neutral" from "buy", despite higher price target