Abhoy Sarkar's Avatar
published in Blogs
Sep 30, 2020

Starbucks (SBUX, $85.82) gets rating boost at Cowen

Starbucks shares got a rating upgrade from Cowen analyst Andrew Charles. .

Charles lifted the rating on the coffee chain’s stock to outperform from market perform. He also boosted his share-price target to $99 from $77.

The analyst said in a note that he expects early signs of the U.S. recovery as “durable, aided by broadening digital access through expanded pay options for loyalty and 23% of U.S. stores adding curbside pickup,” .

According to Charles, the coronavirus pandemic presents new efficiency opportunities to drive 15% earnings-per-share growth for 2022-2023. Calling the shares risk/reward balance "compelling, he mentioned that a bull/bear cases suggest 2-to-1 upside/downside ratio.

“We believe Starbucks is pursuing the right structural drivers to help transcend displaced morning routines, including broadening payment options beyond a Starbucks card for customers to join My Starbucks Rewards loyalty program.”, Charles added.  He expects Starbucks to extend the sales recovery and is therefore sanguine on the potential upside to comps.

Charles feels that Starbucks stock is “attractive on a total-shareholder-return basis, with room for multiple expansion.”

Tickeron's analysis shows:

SBUX in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on August 06, 2020

The 10-day Moving Average for SBUX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on August 06, 2020. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.

Current price $85.79 crossed the support line at $84.74 and is trading between $86.92 resistance and $84.74 support lines. Throughout the month of 08/27/20 - 09/29/20, the price experienced a +2% Uptrend. During the week of 09/22/20 - 09/29/20, the stock enjoyed a +1% Uptrend growth.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Indicator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 28 of 54 cases where SBUX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.

SBUX moved above its 50-day Moving Average on August 06, 2020 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a +3.65% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SBUX advanced for three days, in 176 of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 165 of 285 cases where SBUX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for SBUX moved out of overbought territory on September 17, 2020. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 15 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 42%.

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 17, 2020. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SBUX as a result. In 39 of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 42%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SBUX turned negative on September 17, 2020. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 21 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 44%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where Apple declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.

SBUX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 25, 2020. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 85%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.02.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 18 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SBUX's P/B Ratio (-11.50) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.73). P/E Ratio (76.59) is within average values for comparable stocks, (65.92). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.14) is also within normal values, averaging (6.39). Dividend Yield (1.63) settles around the average of (1.27) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.48) is also within normal values, averaging (1.96).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SBUX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

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