Starbucks (SBUX,$86.96) tops earnings expectations
Starbucks reported its fiscal fourth quarter earnings that topped analysts’ expectations.
The coffee chain’s adjusted earnings for the quarter came in at 51 cents a share, well above the 31 cents expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv.
Revenue fell -8% year-over-year to $6.2 billion, surpassing analysts’ forecast of $6.06 billion.
Global same-store sales fell -9%.
The company also indicated that while the number of transactions has reduced due to the pandemic, customers are spending on pricier items like cold beverages and plant-based options.
According to Starbucks, sales in the U.S. and China are recouping from the COVID-19 pandemic impact more quickly than expected.
In the US, same-store sales fell -9%. Active membership in Starbucks’ U.S. loyalty program climbed +10% to 19.3 million people and accounted for 47% of transactions.
China same-store sales dropped by just -3%.
During the quarter, Starbucks opened 480 new cafes on net. It expects to open 1,100 net new stores and $1.9 billion in capital expenditures in the next fiscal year.
Looking ahead, the company forecasts adjusted earnings of 50 cents to 55 cents per share for the fiscal first quarter.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SBUX in -0.47% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on October 05, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where SBUX declined for three days, in 173 of 300 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SBUX as a result. In 49 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
SBUX moved below its 50-day moving average on September 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SBUX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
The Aroon Indicator for SBUX entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SBUX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 34 of 62 cases where SBUX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SBUX just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where SBUX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +0.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SBUX advanced for three days, in 171 of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
SBUX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 21 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SBUX's P/B Ratio (-20.594) is slightly lower than the industry average of (5.328). P/E Ratio (55.069) is within average values for comparable stocks, (37.793). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.128) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.901) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SBUX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SBUX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a producer of coffee and tea
Industry Restaurants
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