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published in Blogs
Apr 14, 2019

Strong upward trend for Twilio (TWLO) looks to continue

Enterprise software firm has been trending higher over the last four months and it has had one of the best price performances of all stocks over the past year. The company scores a 99 on Investor’s Business Daily’s Relative Price Strength Rating and that is the highest score you can get.

Looking at the daily chart we see that a trend channel has formed from the low in December. The upper rail was formed by the highs from February and March. The lower rail hits the low from late December and early January and now this past week.

The daily stochastic readings didn’t quite reach oversold territory on this latest pullback, but they did get close. The indicators also just made a bullish crossover on April 10.

The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on April 9 and that signal calls for a gain of at least 4% over the next month. The signal showed a confidence level of 89% and the previous signals on Twilio have been successful 83% of the time.

Twilio’s fundamentals are very interesting. The company’s earnings have been flat for the last three years, but they jumped by 233% in the most recent quarter. Sales have increased at an annual rate of 53% per year over the last three years and they were up 77% in the most recent quarterly report.

Unfortunately, the company’s management efficiency measurements aren’t very good. The return on equity is only 2.9% and the profit margin is only 1.1%.

Related Ticker: TWLO

Momentum Indicator for TWLO turns negative, indicating new downward trend

TWLO saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on February 15, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 84 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 84 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

TWLO moved below its 50-day moving average on January 31, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for TWLO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on February 06, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TWLO declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for TWLO entered a downward trend on March 01, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TWLO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 37 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 60 cases where TWLO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TWLO advanced for three days, in of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

TWLO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TWLO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.109) is normal, around the industry mean (17.346). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (54.909). TWLO's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (28.154) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.654). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.027) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.630) is also within normal values, averaging (9.220).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TWLO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), Pinterest (NYSE:PINS), Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME), Snap (NYSE:SNAP), Zillow Group (NASDAQ:Z), Twilio (NYSE:TWLO).

Industry description

Companies in this industry typically license software on a subscription basis and it is centrally hosted. Such products usually go by the names web-based software, on-demand software and hosted software. Cloud computing has emerged as a major force in this space, making it possible to save files to a remote database (without requiring them to be saved on local storage device); as long as a device has access to the web, it can access the data and the software programs to run it. This has in many cases facilitated cost efficiency, speed and security of data for businesses and consumers. Alphabet Inc., Facebook, Inc. and Yahoo! Inc. are some well-known names in the internet software/services industry.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Internet Software/Services Industry is 56.95B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.11K to 1.73T. GOOGL holds the highest valuation in this group at 1.73T. The lowest valued company is MSEZ at 1.11K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Internet Software/Services Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 4,358%. FMHS experienced the highest price growth at 104%, while OB experienced the biggest fall at -16%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Internet Software/Services Industry was -33%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -54% and the average quarterly volume growth was -18%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 43
P/E Growth Rating: 73
Price Growth Rating: 50
SMR Rating: 79
Profit Risk Rating: 89
Seasonality Score: -1 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: Large-Cap Technology Stocks
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a provider of cloud-based communications platform

Industry InternetSoftwareServices

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Packaged Software
Address
101 Spear Street
Phone
+1 415 390-2337
Employees
8156
Web
https://www.twilio.com
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TWLO and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TWLO has been loosely correlated with FVRR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 47% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TWLO jumps, then FVRR could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To TWLO
1D Price
Change %
TWLO100%
+1.36%
FVRR - TWLO
47%
Loosely correlated
-1.95%
CARG - TWLO
47%
Loosely correlated
+2.44%
SMWB - TWLO
44%
Loosely correlated
-1.92%
ZG - TWLO
41%
Loosely correlated
+2.81%
TTGT - TWLO
40%
Loosely correlated
-0.22%
More
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