Supply Chain Disruption Makes Coty (COTY, $9.11) Slump
Coty Inc.’s share prices slumped more than 22% on Wednesday as the makers of CoverGirl cosmetics were hit by an unparalleled supply chain disruption in two of its major markets, the U.S. and Europe, resulting into a steeper-than-expected decline in its first-quarter revenue and profit.
The multinational cosmetics and fragrance maker reported a decline of 9.2% in its first quarter sales to stand at $2.03 billion. The net loss for the quarter for Coty stood at $12.1 million compared to a loss of $19.7 million in the same period last year. However, excluding items, the company reported an adjusted profit of 11 cents a share for the quarter, beating analysts’ estimate of 7 cents a share. The company’s gross margin also took a hit during the quarter and stood at 60.2% after declining by 70 bps.
Grappling to digest the acquisition of a large portfolio of beauty brands from Procter & Gamble in 2016, the company first flagged the supply chain issue in August when it struggled with shortages of packaging products at its key suppliers. The problem was further aggravated by the Hurricane Florence which hindered shipping of products, especially the luxury fragrances unit to retailers in the quarter.
The supply chain fiasco has cost $60 million in the first quarter alone, way beyond Coty’s estimate of $50 million for the full year.
Aroon Indicator for COTY shows an upward move is likely
COTY's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on January 30, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 148 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 148 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where COTY's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 32 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where COTY advanced for three days, in of 270 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
COTY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on COTY as a result. In of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for COTY turned negative on March 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
COTY moved below its 50-day moving average on February 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for COTY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on February 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where COTY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.611) is normal, around the industry mean (26.132). P/E Ratio (37.145) is within average values for comparable stocks, (60.924). COTY's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.182) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.588). COTY has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.035). P/S Ratio (0.369) is also within normal values, averaging (3.549).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. COTY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. COTY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a maker of beauty products, fragrances, color cosmetics and skin care products
Industry HouseholdPersonalCare
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