Supply Chain Disruption Makes Coty (COTY, $9.11) Slump
Coty Inc.’s share prices slumped more than 22% on Wednesday as the makers of CoverGirl cosmetics were hit by an unparalleled supply chain disruption in two of its major markets, the U.S. and Europe, resulting into a steeper-than-expected decline in its first-quarter revenue and profit.
The multinational cosmetics and fragrance maker reported a decline of 9.2% in its first quarter sales to stand at $2.03 billion. The net loss for the quarter for Coty stood at $12.1 million compared to a loss of $19.7 million in the same period last year. However, excluding items, the company reported an adjusted profit of 11 cents a share for the quarter, beating analysts’ estimate of 7 cents a share. The company’s gross margin also took a hit during the quarter and stood at 60.2% after declining by 70 bps.
Grappling to digest the acquisition of a large portfolio of beauty brands from Procter & Gamble in 2016, the company first flagged the supply chain issue in August when it struggled with shortages of packaging products at its key suppliers. The problem was further aggravated by the Hurricane Florence which hindered shipping of products, especially the luxury fragrances unit to retailers in the quarter.
The supply chain fiasco has cost $60 million in the first quarter alone, way beyond Coty’s estimate of $50 million for the full year.
COTY's Stochastic Oscillator penetrating overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for COTY moved into overbought territory on July 03, 2025. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for COTY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on June 20, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where COTY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on July 02, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on COTY as a result. In of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for COTY just turned positive on July 02, 2025. Looking at past instances where COTY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
COTY moved above its 50-day moving average on July 02, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where COTY advanced for three days, in of 277 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
COTY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 177 cases where COTY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. COTY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.406) is normal, around the industry mean (17.380). P/E Ratio (33.971) is within average values for comparable stocks, (204.360). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.933) is also within normal values, averaging (3.832). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.107) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.753) is also within normal values, averaging (116.662).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. COTY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a maker of beauty products, fragrances, color cosmetics and skin care products
Industry HouseholdPersonalCare
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