Supply Chain Disruption Makes Coty (COTY, $9.11) Slump
Coty Inc.’s share prices slumped more than 22% on Wednesday as the makers of CoverGirl cosmetics were hit by an unparalleled supply chain disruption in two of its major markets, the U.S. and Europe, resulting into a steeper-than-expected decline in its first-quarter revenue and profit.
The multinational cosmetics and fragrance maker reported a decline of 9.2% in its first quarter sales to stand at $2.03 billion. The net loss for the quarter for Coty stood at $12.1 million compared to a loss of $19.7 million in the same period last year. However, excluding items, the company reported an adjusted profit of 11 cents a share for the quarter, beating analysts’ estimate of 7 cents a share. The company’s gross margin also took a hit during the quarter and stood at 60.2% after declining by 70 bps.
Grappling to digest the acquisition of a large portfolio of beauty brands from Procter & Gamble in 2016, the company first flagged the supply chain issue in August when it struggled with shortages of packaging products at its key suppliers. The problem was further aggravated by the Hurricane Florence which hindered shipping of products, especially the luxury fragrances unit to retailers in the quarter.
The supply chain fiasco has cost $60 million in the first quarter alone, way beyond Coty’s estimate of $50 million for the full year.
COTY sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for COTY moved above the 200-day moving average on September 04, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
COTY moved above its 50-day moving average on September 11, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.17% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where COTY advanced for three days, in 194 of 277 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 115 of 154 cases where COTY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on COTY as a result. In 67 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for COTY turned negative on September 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 78%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where COTY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
COTY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. COTY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.795) is normal, around the industry mean (17.701). P/E Ratio (37.145) is within average values for comparable stocks, (45.207). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.182) is also within normal values, averaging (2.655). COTY has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.035). P/S Ratio (0.408) is also within normal values, averaging (1.899).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. COTY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a maker of beauty products, fragrances, color cosmetics and skin care products
Industry HouseholdPersonalCare
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