Supply Chain Disruption Makes Coty (COTY, $9.11) Slump
Coty Inc.’s share prices slumped more than 22% on Wednesday as the makers of CoverGirl cosmetics were hit by an unparalleled supply chain disruption in two of its major markets, the U.S. and Europe, resulting into a steeper-than-expected decline in its first-quarter revenue and profit.
The multinational cosmetics and fragrance maker reported a decline of 9.2% in its first quarter sales to stand at $2.03 billion. The net loss for the quarter for Coty stood at $12.1 million compared to a loss of $19.7 million in the same period last year. However, excluding items, the company reported an adjusted profit of 11 cents a share for the quarter, beating analysts’ estimate of 7 cents a share. The company’s gross margin also took a hit during the quarter and stood at 60.2% after declining by 70 bps.
Grappling to digest the acquisition of a large portfolio of beauty brands from Procter & Gamble in 2016, the company first flagged the supply chain issue in August when it struggled with shortages of packaging products at its key suppliers. The problem was further aggravated by the Hurricane Florence which hindered shipping of products, especially the luxury fragrances unit to retailers in the quarter.
The supply chain fiasco has cost $60 million in the first quarter alone, way beyond Coty’s estimate of $50 million for the full year.
COTY in +6.48% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on July 02, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where COTY advanced for three days, in of 275 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 30, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on COTY as a result. In of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for COTY just turned positive on June 10, 2026. Looking at past instances where COTY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
COTY moved above its 50-day moving average on June 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for COTY moved out of overbought territory on July 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 63 cases where COTY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where COTY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
COTY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for COTY entered a downward trend on June 15, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. COTY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.609) is normal, around the industry mean (28.036). P/E Ratio (37.145) is within average values for comparable stocks, (55.621). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.182) is also within normal values, averaging (2.920). COTY's Dividend Yield (0.000) is considerably lower than the industry average of (0.035). P/S Ratio (0.324) is also within normal values, averaging (2.388).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. COTY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a maker of beauty products, fragrances, color cosmetics and skin care products
Industry HouseholdPersonalCare
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