GET DAILY SIGNALSTeradyne (TER) Analyst Consensus at $460 Suggests +15% Upside Potential
Key Takeaways
- The central target of $460 is the arithmetic mean of 11 recent, individually attributable analyst price targets, rounded to a clean figure.
- With Teradyne, Inc. (TER) closing near $400.91, reaching $460 implies a gain of roughly 15%.
- Analyst targets span a wide range of about $390 to $550, reflecting genuine disagreement on how far the AI-driven upcycle can run.
- Bullish drivers center on surging AI chip-testing demand, while the main risk is a stretched valuation after a 100%-plus year-to-date rally.
- The $460 target sits below the stock's June 2026 record high near $488, a notable technical fact for the path ahead.
Analyst Price Targets and Consensus View
Teradyne carries broad analyst coverage, so the $460 central target comes from compiling individual price targets rather than any single firm's outlook. I reviewed 11 recent targets from firms such as Susquehanna ($550), Cantor Fitzgerald ($550), BofA Securities ($525), UBS ($500), Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan (each $465), Evercore ISI and Baird (each $420), Citi ($400), Morgan Stanley ($397), and Stifel ($390). That produces a range of roughly $390 to $550 and an arithmetic mean near $462, which rounds cleanly to the $460 figure.
Opinions vary noticeably. The most bullish analysts point to AI-driven demand for semiconductor automated test equipment as justification for premium multiples, supporting targets near $550. More measured views, including Morgan Stanley's Equal-Weight rating and Baird's August downgrade to Neutral citing valuation, suggest much of the upside may already be reflected in the price. The spread underscores that a mean simply averages differing perspectives rather than assuring future performance. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Current Market Position and Path Toward the Target
Teradyne, Inc. (TER) closed at $400.91 on September 30, 2026, for a market capitalization near $62.7 billion. Reaching $460 would represent a rise of about 15%, a relatively contained move for a stock that has already advanced more than 100% year to date. The shares actually traded above $460 earlier in 2026, peaking near $488 before pulling back over the summer.
The fundamental case rests on Teradyne’s semiconductor-test operations. AI-related applications accounted for more than 60% of fourth-quarter 2025 revenue and were projected to reach up to 70% in early 2026. Management has outlined a longer-term earnings model targeting roughly $6 billion in revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $9.50 to $11, compared with $3.96 in 2025, which could support a meaningfully higher valuation if achieved.
What Could Support a Move Toward the Target
Demand remains the primary driver. AI data-center expansions are widening the system-on-chip and high-bandwidth memory test markets where Teradyne holds a leading position. Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue increased 44% year over year, memory test revenue reached a record, and compute-related test revenue grew roughly 90% for the full year. Analyst revisions have generally trended higher, with several firms raising targets and J.P. Morgan upgrading the stock to Overweight. Additional support comes from the company’s inclusion in the NASDAQ-100 and its diversified portfolio across semiconductor test, robotics, and product test.
What Could Prevent the Target From Being Reached
Valuation presents the clearest hurdle. The stock trades near 55 times trailing earnings and roughly 41 times forward earnings, offering limited cushion for any shortfall. Baird highlighted valuation concerns in its August downgrade. Management has noted that the current surge could be followed by a digestion phase, and visibility into the second half is constrained by the lumpy nature of AI-related orders. Customer concentration in compute and memory testing, competitive pressures, and any slowdown in hyperscaler capital spending could also pressure multiples.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
The 52-week range of $131.75 to $487.91 sets the broader context. The record high near $488, reached in late June 2026, remains the key resistance level above the current price, so the $460 target would require reclaiming territory already visited. Support appears in the $370 to $390 zone from September pullback lows, with the round $400 level serving as a near-term pivot. A decisive break above the prior peak would signal resumption of the broader uptrend.
Time Horizon and What Investors Should Monitor
Analyst price targets generally reflect a 12-month horizon, though assumptions about the duration of the AI cycle differ across firms. The next important catalyst is the quarterly earnings report, expected around October 27, 2026, where guidance on second-half orders and any updates to the revenue and EPS framework will be closely watched. Investors should also follow revisions to analyst targets, trends in memory and SoC test demand, hyperscaler AI capital-expenditure plans, and shifts in valuation multiples.
Final Assessment
Can Teradyne reach $460? The target, a rounded mean of roughly 11 analyst price targets spanning $390 to $550, represents about 15% upside from the recent close near $401. The strongest supports are clear: robust AI chip-test demand, upward analyst revisions, and an ambitious multi-year earnings model. The main obstacles remain a rich valuation, management’s caution about near-term demand lumpiness, and the fact that the stock has already retreated from a higher peak. The path forward likely depends on sustained AI capital spending and execution against guidance, with the next earnings report serving as the key checkpoint.
Using AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals
In my own work tracking momentum in names like Teradyne, I find Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals helpful for scanning thousands of stocks and ETFs in real time. The tool generates Buy, Sell, or Hold signals based on technical behavior and AI-driven analysis, which can complement traditional research when monitoring positions or spotting trend shifts.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
TER sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
TER saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 12, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 49 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TER as a result. In 66 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
TER moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TER crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TER declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TER's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.97% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TER advanced for three days, in 254 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
TER may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 238 of 305 cases where TER Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TER’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: TER's P/B Ratio (15.715) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.021). P/E Ratio (47.198) is within average values for comparable stocks, (95.827). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.734) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.002) settles around the average of (0.008) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.077) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
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General Information
an electronic test systems manufacturer
Industry ElectronicProductionEquipment
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