GET DAILY SIGNALSThe Race to a COVID-19 Vaccine
The COVID-19 virus has wreaked havoc on countries around the globe in 2020, both in medical terms and economic ones. When the virus first popped up in the Wuhan province of China, local authorities took note of how quickly the virus spread. They took actions to shut down businesses and to limit public interactions between citizens. This became somewhat of a playbook for other countries as the virus spread around the world. The virus has taken a great toll on almost every economy around the world.
Many pharmaceutical and biotechnology firms are working on vaccines for the COVID-19 virus. By the time they are finished, there will likely be more than one that ends up getting approval from Federal Drug Administration in the United States. Other countries will likely have multiple options at some point in the future as well.
As an investor, trying to pick which company will be the ultimate winner is like trying to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby. You have a number of horses in the field to choose from, but do you put all of your money on one horse? Or do you spread your money out and bet on a couple of different horses?
There are pharma giants like Merck (NYSE: MRK), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) in the mix. But there are also smaller firms like Novavax (Nasdaq: NVAX), Inovio Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: INO), and Moderna Biotechnology (Nasdaq: MRNA) that are in the mix as well.
Obviously the company that creates a successful vaccine will benefit greatly, but for some of the companies that are working on one, it could be a potential make or break moment for their stock. If it is a company like Merck that is first to bring a vaccine to market, it will be a huge boost to revenue for the company. But the company isn’t going to go out of business if it isn’t first. For a company like Moderna that has seen its stock jump more than triple since late February, it could be critical for the company to be one of the first companies with a viable vaccine.
Sticking with the horse racing comparison, you could consider it betting on one of the favorites versus betting on a long shot. Sure the long shot can come in and payoff in a big way, but the safer play is to bet on one of the favorites.
I took 10 stocks that are working on vaccines and created a watchlist on Tickeron. I included seven major pharmaceutical and biotech firms and I included the three smaller ones that I mentioned earlier. Once I had the list built, I sorted them by the fundamental analysis scores on the screener.
The screener showed that Astrazeneca (NYSE: AZN) is the top rated stock of the bunch with five of the seven categories coming in the positive range. Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) was the second highest rated with five positive readings and two negative ratings. Glaxosmithkline (NYSE: GSK) is third with three positive ratings and three neutral ratings.
We see the three smaller firms at the bottom of the ratings with Moderna at the very bottom. The screener shows five ratings in the negative range, one in the neutral range, and one where there was no rating. This didn't surprise me necessarily because these companies don't have the strong earnings growth of the bigger companies and they don't have the strong readings from the indicators that make up the SMR indicator.
After looking at the fundamentals, I flipped over to the technical analysis screener to see which of the stocks were rated the strongest there. Lilly was the top rated stock on the technical analysis screener with four positive ratings and two neutral ratings. There was a surprise stock in the number two spot and that was Inovio Pharmaceuticals. The stock has three indicators in the positive range and only one negative reading.
Moderna was once again at the bottom of the list with four indicators producing negative readings and only one producing a positive reading. Sanofi was the second worst on the technical analysis screen with two negative readings and no positive readings.
So what does of all of this mean and how should you try to invest in order to benefit from a COVID-19 vaccine? You could invest in all 10 of these stocks and take your chances, but not even that would assure that you had the winner. There are other companies working on a vaccine, these just happen to be the frontrunners at this time. You could buy all three of the smaller companies and hope it's one of them that hits paydirt, but all three stocks have ramped up quite a bit over the last few months.
Personally I like Eli Lilly, even if it doesn't reach the market with a vaccine first. The company has seen earnings and revenue grow at solid rates over the last few years and there isn't any reason to think that won't continue. You could look to buy one or two of the bigger players, maybe Lilly and Astrazeneca since they rank the best when you weigh the fundamentals and technicals equally. Maybe add one of the smaller companies in with those two as a third stock in the portfolio. In that case, Inovio ranks the best when you look at a combination of technical analysis and fundamentals.
Going back to the horse racing analogy, if you were to use that last scenario with Lilly, Astrazeneca, and Inovio, you have three different stocks. Even if they aren't the first ones to market with a vaccine, Lilly and Astrazeneca aren't necessarily going to drop a lot. If they are one of the first to market with a vaccine, they can still see a significant upside move. Inovio is the kind of the long shot of the three. It would be a huge victory for the company if it were to be one of the first to market with a successful vaccine. While the stock has jumped six-fold since the end of February, it could still see significant gains. With a combination of solid stocks like Lilly and Astrazeneca and the potential of a stock like Inovio, you are spreading your risk around, but keeping a tremendous upside potential.
Contributor
Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
Aroon Indicator for MRK shows an upward move is likely
MRK's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on November 02, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 265 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 174 of the 265 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 31 of 52 cases where MRK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MRK as a result. In 52 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MRK just turned positive on October 30, 2026. Looking at past instances where MRK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
MRK moved above its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MRK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +6.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MRK advanced for three days, in 191 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MRK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MRK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 58, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.633) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.421). MRK's P/E Ratio (116.452) is considerably higher than the industry average of (21.700). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.716) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.038) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.402) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
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a developer of human and animal health products
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor
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