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Serhii Bondarenko's Avatar
published in Blogs
Aug 01, 2023

Theme Coal +2.59% 1D change: Insights on $ARLP $BTU $GNK & More

The Resurgence of Coal: A Robust Analysis of the Sector's Prospective Opportunities

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Theme Coal - $ARLP $BTU $HNRG $NRP $BKH $GNK $SXC $HCC $ARCH $METC $TECK $CTRA $CEIX

Sector Overview: Powering the World with Coal

The global energy sector has always depended on a mix of sources, and despite the rise of renewable energy, coal still accounts for around 30% of global energy production. This non-renewable resource continues to play a critical role in electricity generation, making the companies that mine, process, and distribute coal invaluable in the energy supply chain. The U.S. coal industry is prominently led by Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., Peabody Energy Corporation, and Arch Coal Inc.

Momentum Building Up: Positive Short-Term Outlook

The short-term forecast for stocks within the coal sector is looking quite positive. A strong buy signal was recently indicated based on the 15 Indicators, reflecting an optimistic sentiment around these stocks. In line with this, Tickeron, a leading financial analysis firm, anticipates a further increase of over 4.00% within the next month for this group. This forecast is underpinned by an 80% likelihood and a 2.08 to 1 ratio of advancing to declining volumes over the past month.

Additionally, 11 stocks within the sector are on a similar upward trajectory, as indicated by the MA50MA10 indicator, with an average likelihood of 80% of continuing this positive trend.

Market Capitalization: A Mixed Bag of Opportunities

The market capitalization of companies in the coal sector varies significantly, presenting a spectrum of opportunities for investors. The average market capitalization stands at $4.8B, with individual valuations ranging from a mere $5.6M to a massive $22.7B. TECK commands the highest valuation in the group, while FELP is at the lower end of the spectrum.

Stock Performance: A Tale of Growth and Resilience

Looking at recent price movements, the average weekly price growth across all stocks in the coal sector was 3.59%. The monthly and quarterly growth rates were even more impressive, at 8.84% and 2.12%, respectively. Individual stocks showed varying performances, with GNK experiencing the highest price growth at 8.13%, while HNRG had the biggest drop at -2.89%.

Peabody Energy and Coterra Energy stood out as top weekly gainers at different points in July. On the other hand, Coterra Energy also had a challenging week in late June, with a decline of -5.91%.

Volume Analysis: Bullish Signals Emerge

The average volume growth has shown an encouraging trend across all stocks in the coal sector, with weekly, monthly, and quarterly growth rates standing at 15.48%, 16.42%, and 11.47%, respectively. Individual stocks such as Black Hills, Hallador Energy, and Suncoke Energy have recently seen record-breaking daily volume growths, reinforcing the bullish sentiment in the sector.

Fundamental Analysis Ratings: A Mixed Picture

The fundamental analysis ratings of the coal sector, where 1 is the best and 100 is the worst, present a mixed picture. The sector received a relatively good valuation rating of 37, along with a similar SMR rating. The price growth rating stands at 47, while the P/E growth rating is at a higher level of 73. The profit rating is near the midpoint at 52. Finally, the sector has a negative seasonality score of -21, which might necessitate a cautious approach when making investment decisions based on seasonal factors.

Related Ticker: ARLP, BTUMF, BKH, GNK, SXC, HCC, NRP, ARCH, METC, TECK, CTRA, CEIX

Momentum Indicator for ARLP turns positive, indicating new upward trend

ARLP saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on March 18, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 77 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 77 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ARLP just turned positive on March 18, 2025. Looking at past instances where ARLP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

ARLP moved above its 50-day moving average on March 24, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for ARLP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on March 31, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ARLP advanced for three days, in of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ARLP declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

ARLP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on March 19, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for ARLP entered a downward trend on March 13, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.406) is normal, around the industry mean (2.662). P/E Ratio (4.187) is within average values for comparable stocks, (130.380). ARLP's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (36.460). Dividend Yield (0.139) settles around the average of (0.278) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.998) is also within normal values, averaging (1.655).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ARLP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Alliance Resource Partners LP (NASDAQ:ARLP).

Industry description

Companies that mine, process and distribute coal and lignite. Coal goes towards around 30% of global energy production, and is heavily relied upon for electricity generation. Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., Peabody Energy Corporation and Arch Coal Inc. are major coal companies in the U.S.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Coal Industry is 6.72B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 134.43K to 75.88B. CUAEF holds the highest valuation in this group at 75.88B. The lowest valued company is CERX at 134.43K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Coal Industry was -2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 7%, and the average quarterly price growth was -20%. APMCF experienced the highest price growth at 19%, while CODQL experienced the biggest fall at -25%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Coal Industry was -23%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -59% and the average quarterly volume growth was 116%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 35
P/E Growth Rating: 36
Price Growth Rating: 70
SMR Rating: 64
Profit Risk Rating: 57
Seasonality Score: -8 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a producer of coal

Industry Coal

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Coal
Address
1717 South Boulder Avenue
Phone
+1 918 295-7600
Employees
3595
Web
https://www.arlp.com
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