Theme Coal +2.59% 1D change: Insights on $ARLP $BTU $GNK & More
The Resurgence of Coal: A Robust Analysis of the Sector's Prospective Opportunities
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Theme Coal - $ARLP $BTU $HNRG $NRP $BKH $GNK $SXC $HCC $ARCH $METC $TECK $CTRA $CEIX
Sector Overview: Powering the World with Coal
The global energy sector has always depended on a mix of sources, and despite the rise of renewable energy, coal still accounts for around 30% of global energy production. This non-renewable resource continues to play a critical role in electricity generation, making the companies that mine, process, and distribute coal invaluable in the energy supply chain. The U.S. coal industry is prominently led by Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., Peabody Energy Corporation, and Arch Coal Inc.
Momentum Building Up: Positive Short-Term Outlook
The short-term forecast for stocks within the coal sector is looking quite positive. A strong buy signal was recently indicated based on the 15 Indicators, reflecting an optimistic sentiment around these stocks. In line with this, Tickeron, a leading financial analysis firm, anticipates a further increase of over 4.00% within the next month for this group. This forecast is underpinned by an 80% likelihood and a 2.08 to 1 ratio of advancing to declining volumes over the past month.
Additionally, 11 stocks within the sector are on a similar upward trajectory, as indicated by the MA50MA10 indicator, with an average likelihood of 80% of continuing this positive trend.
Market Capitalization: A Mixed Bag of Opportunities
The market capitalization of companies in the coal sector varies significantly, presenting a spectrum of opportunities for investors. The average market capitalization stands at $4.8B, with individual valuations ranging from a mere $5.6M to a massive $22.7B. TECK commands the highest valuation in the group, while FELP is at the lower end of the spectrum.
Stock Performance: A Tale of Growth and Resilience
Looking at recent price movements, the average weekly price growth across all stocks in the coal sector was 3.59%. The monthly and quarterly growth rates were even more impressive, at 8.84% and 2.12%, respectively. Individual stocks showed varying performances, with GNK experiencing the highest price growth at 8.13%, while HNRG had the biggest drop at -2.89%.
Peabody Energy and Coterra Energy stood out as top weekly gainers at different points in July. On the other hand, Coterra Energy also had a challenging week in late June, with a decline of -5.91%.
Volume Analysis: Bullish Signals Emerge
The average volume growth has shown an encouraging trend across all stocks in the coal sector, with weekly, monthly, and quarterly growth rates standing at 15.48%, 16.42%, and 11.47%, respectively. Individual stocks such as Black Hills, Hallador Energy, and Suncoke Energy have recently seen record-breaking daily volume growths, reinforcing the bullish sentiment in the sector.
Fundamental Analysis Ratings: A Mixed Picture
The fundamental analysis ratings of the coal sector, where 1 is the best and 100 is the worst, present a mixed picture. The sector received a relatively good valuation rating of 37, along with a similar SMR rating. The price growth rating stands at 47, while the P/E growth rating is at a higher level of 73. The profit rating is near the midpoint at 52. Finally, the sector has a negative seasonality score of -21, which might necessitate a cautious approach when making investment decisions based on seasonal factors.
Momentum Indicator for ARLP turns positive, indicating new upward trend
ARLP saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 24, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 77 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 77 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for ARLP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 24, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ARLP advanced for three days, in of 323 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 320 cases where ARLP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ARLP moved out of overbought territory on October 28, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 51 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ARLP turned negative on October 14, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ARLP declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ARLP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 24, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.406) is normal, around the industry mean (2.546). P/E Ratio (4.187) is within average values for comparable stocks, (120.709). ARLP's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (36.460). Dividend Yield (0.139) settles around the average of (0.266) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.998) is also within normal values, averaging (1.583).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 52, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ARLP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
Notable companies
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a producer of coal
Industry Coal