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Aug 01, 2023

Theme Coal +2.59% 1D change: Insights on $ARLP $BTU $GNK & More

The Resurgence of Coal: A Robust Analysis of the Sector's Prospective Opportunities

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Sector Overview: Powering the World with Coal

The global energy sector has always depended on a mix of sources, and despite the rise of renewable energy, coal still accounts for around 30% of global energy production. This non-renewable resource continues to play a critical role in electricity generation, making the companies that mine, process, and distribute coal invaluable in the energy supply chain. The U.S. coal industry is prominently led by Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., Peabody Energy Corporation, and Arch Coal Inc.

Momentum Building Up: Positive Short-Term Outlook

The short-term forecast for stocks within the coal sector is looking quite positive. A strong buy signal was recently indicated based on the 15 Indicators, reflecting an optimistic sentiment around these stocks. In line with this, Tickeron, a leading financial analysis firm, anticipates a further increase of over 4.00% within the next month for this group. This forecast is underpinned by an 80% likelihood and a 2.08 to 1 ratio of advancing to declining volumes over the past month.

Additionally, 11 stocks within the sector are on a similar upward trajectory, as indicated by the MA50MA10 indicator, with an average likelihood of 80% of continuing this positive trend.

Market Capitalization: A Mixed Bag of Opportunities

The market capitalization of companies in the coal sector varies significantly, presenting a spectrum of opportunities for investors. The average market capitalization stands at $4.8B, with individual valuations ranging from a mere $5.6M to a massive $22.7B. TECK commands the highest valuation in the group, while FELP is at the lower end of the spectrum.

Stock Performance: A Tale of Growth and Resilience

Looking at recent price movements, the average weekly price growth across all stocks in the coal sector was 3.59%. The monthly and quarterly growth rates were even more impressive, at 8.84% and 2.12%, respectively. Individual stocks showed varying performances, with GNK experiencing the highest price growth at 8.13%, while HNRG had the biggest drop at -2.89%.

Peabody Energy and Coterra Energy stood out as top weekly gainers at different points in July. On the other hand, Coterra Energy also had a challenging week in late June, with a decline of -5.91%.

Volume Analysis: Bullish Signals Emerge

The average volume growth has shown an encouraging trend across all stocks in the coal sector, with weekly, monthly, and quarterly growth rates standing at 15.48%, 16.42%, and 11.47%, respectively. Individual stocks such as Black Hills, Hallador Energy, and Suncoke Energy have recently seen record-breaking daily volume growths, reinforcing the bullish sentiment in the sector.

Fundamental Analysis Ratings: A Mixed Picture

The fundamental analysis ratings of the coal sector, where 1 is the best and 100 is the worst, present a mixed picture. The sector received a relatively good valuation rating of 37, along with a similar SMR rating. The price growth rating stands at 47, while the P/E growth rating is at a higher level of 73. The profit rating is near the midpoint at 52. Finally, the sector has a negative seasonality score of -21, which might necessitate a cautious approach when making investment decisions based on seasonal factors.


ARLP sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average

The 50-day moving average for ARLP moved above the 200-day moving average on August 31, 2023. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 13, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ARLP as a result. In of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ARLP just turned positive on September 15, 2023. Looking at past instances where ARLP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ARLP advanced for three days, in of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

ARLP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 241 cases where ARLP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ARLP declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.525) is normal, around the industry mean (2.199). P/E Ratio (3.754) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.824). ARLP's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (36.460). Dividend Yield (0.123) settles around the average of (0.146) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.023) is also within normal values, averaging (1.501).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ARLP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Alliance Resource Partners LP (NASDAQ:ARLP).

Industry description

Companies that mine, process and distribute coal and lignite. Coal goes towards around 30% of global energy production, and is heavily relied upon for electricity generation. Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., Peabody Energy Corporation and Arch Coal Inc. are major coal companies in the U.S.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Coal Industry is 6.27B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 134.43K to 75.88B. CUAEF holds the highest valuation in this group at 75.88B. The lowest valued company is CERX at 134.43K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Coal Industry was 3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 6%, and the average quarterly price growth was 12%. METCB experienced the highest price growth at 19%, while BNPJY experienced the biggest fall at -20%.


The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Coal Industry was -39%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 12% and the average quarterly volume growth was -25%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 36
P/E Growth Rating: 66
Price Growth Rating: 48
SMR Rating: 45
Profit Risk Rating: 61
Seasonality Score: 20 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a producer of coal

Industry Coal

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ARLP and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARLP has been loosely correlated with CEIX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ARLP jumps, then CEIX could also see price increases.

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