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Jul 08, 2023

TLRY Bullish Market Trend: RSI Oscillator Predicts 80% Upward Shift

Market Neutral Strategy (TA&FA) with TLRY: A Statistical Perspective on the Bullish Trend

The Trading Analysis (TA) and Fundamental Analysis (FA) insights into Tilray, Inc. (TLRY) reveal an increasingly positive outlook. The technical indicators, including the RSI Oscillator, Stochastic Oscillator, and MACD, along with the recent price performance, all point towards a strong likelihood of continued price appreciation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) - a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements - for TLRY indicates a shifting trend from downward to upward. Out of 45 instances where TLRY's RSI Indicator exited the oversold territory, 36 resulted in a price increase. This translates to an 80% probability of the stock price continuing its upward trend, as suggested by Tickeron's analysis.

Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator - another momentum indicator comparing a particular closing price of a security to a range of its prices over a certain period of time - reinforces the RSI's upward trend prediction for TLRY. After exiting the oversold zone, the Stochastic Oscillator has historically led to an increase in TLRY's price in 53 out of 66 cases, implying an 80% probability of a continued upward trend.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TLRY, which is used to identify possible buy and sell signals, turned positive on June 21, 2023. This is a bullish signal that suggests upward price momentum. Historical data shows that when TLRY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued its rise in 36 out of 47 instances over the subsequent month. This suggests a 77% likelihood of TLRY maintaining its upward trajectory.

In addition, the recent +5.26% 3-day advance for TLRY offers a further hint at the stock's potential for more gains. History shows that in 179 of 220 situations where TLRY advanced for three consecutive days, the price climbed even further within the following month. This statistical occurrence suggests an 81% chance of a continued upward trend.

These insights project an optimistic future for TLRY. The combination of RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, and MACD analyses along with the recent price movements put TLRY in a promising light for those considering a market-neutral strategy. This TA&FA approach for TLRY has yielded a commendable 12.29% return, showcasing the potential of this strategy in choppy market conditions and reinforcing the advantage of employing multiple technical indicators to predict market trends.

Related Ticker: TLRY

TLRY in +2.66% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on July 16, 2024

Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where TLRY advanced for three days, in of 205 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on July 03, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TLRY as a result. In of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TLRY just turned positive on June 27, 2024. Looking at past instances where TLRY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

TLRY moved above its 50-day moving average on July 11, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for TLRY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on July 17, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for TLRY moved out of overbought territory on July 17, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 20 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 20 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 45 cases where TLRY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TLRY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

TLRY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 10, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for TLRY entered a downward trend on July 08, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 75%.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TLRY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.545) is normal, around the industry mean (52.351). P/E Ratio (8.518) is within average values for comparable stocks, (85.761). TLRY's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.825). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.118) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.355) is also within normal values, averaging (21.439).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TLRY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are ZOETIS (NYSE:ZTS), Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (NYSE:TEVA), Elanco Animal Health (NYSE:ELAN), Intra-Cellular Therapies (NASDAQ:ITCI), Bausch Health Companies (NYSE:BHC), Tilray Brands (NASDAQ:TLRY), Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc (NASDAQ:AVDL), Canopy Growth Corp (NASDAQ:CGC), Aurora Cannabis (NASDAQ:ACB), Journey Medical Corp (NASDAQ:DERM).

Industry description

Pharmaceuticals (Other) comprise companies that are involved in the discovery, development or manufacturing of therapeutic and preventative medicines. They often collaborate with or acquire other pharmaceutical/healthcare firms. Examples of companies in this segment include Bausch Health Companies Inc., Icon Plc and Perrigo Company Plc.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Pharmaceuticals: Other Industry is 3.12B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 246 to 77.48B. ZTS holds the highest valuation in this group at 77.48B. The lowest valued company is PEMTF at 246.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Pharmaceuticals: Other Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 48%. AGYTF experienced the highest price growth at 200%, while HSTI experienced the biggest fall at -75%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Pharmaceuticals: Other Industry was 13%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 50% and the average quarterly volume growth was -19%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 54
P/E Growth Rating: 71
Price Growth Rating: 59
SMR Rating: 87
Profit Risk Rating: 92
Seasonality Score: 2 (-100 ... +100)
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A.I.Advisor
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General Information

a holding company, whose subsidiaries engages in research, cultivation, processing and distribution of medical cannabis

Industry PharmaceuticalsOther

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Biotechnology
Address
265 Talbot Street West
Phone
+1 844 845-7291
Employees
1600
Web
https://www.tilray.com
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