TLRY Bullish Market Trend: RSI Oscillator Predicts 80% Upward Shift
Market Neutral Strategy (TA&FA) with TLRY: A Statistical Perspective on the Bullish Trend
The Trading Analysis (TA) and Fundamental Analysis (FA) insights into Tilray, Inc. (TLRY) reveal an increasingly positive outlook. The technical indicators, including the RSI Oscillator, Stochastic Oscillator, and MACD, along with the recent price performance, all point towards a strong likelihood of continued price appreciation.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) - a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements - for TLRY indicates a shifting trend from downward to upward. Out of 45 instances where TLRY's RSI Indicator exited the oversold territory, 36 resulted in a price increase. This translates to an 80% probability of the stock price continuing its upward trend, as suggested by Tickeron's analysis.
Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator - another momentum indicator comparing a particular closing price of a security to a range of its prices over a certain period of time - reinforces the RSI's upward trend prediction for TLRY. After exiting the oversold zone, the Stochastic Oscillator has historically led to an increase in TLRY's price in 53 out of 66 cases, implying an 80% probability of a continued upward trend.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TLRY, which is used to identify possible buy and sell signals, turned positive on June 21, 2023. This is a bullish signal that suggests upward price momentum. Historical data shows that when TLRY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued its rise in 36 out of 47 instances over the subsequent month. This suggests a 77% likelihood of TLRY maintaining its upward trajectory.
In addition, the recent +5.26% 3-day advance for TLRY offers a further hint at the stock's potential for more gains. History shows that in 179 of 220 situations where TLRY advanced for three consecutive days, the price climbed even further within the following month. This statistical occurrence suggests an 81% chance of a continued upward trend.
These insights project an optimistic future for TLRY. The combination of RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, and MACD analyses along with the recent price movements put TLRY in a promising light for those considering a market-neutral strategy. This TA&FA approach for TLRY has yielded a commendable 12.29% return, showcasing the potential of this strategy in choppy market conditions and reinforcing the advantage of employing multiple technical indicators to predict market trends.
Momentum Indicator for TLRY turns negative, indicating new downward trend
TLRY saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on September 15, 2023. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 86 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TLRY moved out of overbought territory on September 12, 2023. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 15 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 15 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TLRY turned negative on September 15, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
TLRY moved below its 50-day moving average on September 26, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TLRY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 28, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TLRY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 50-day moving average for TLRY moved above the 200-day moving average on September 27, 2023. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TLRY advanced for three days, in of 212 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TLRY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 113 cases where TLRY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TLRY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.524) is normal, around the industry mean (85.803). P/E Ratio (8.518) is within average values for comparable stocks, (58.606). TLRY's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (3.360). TLRY has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.027). P/S Ratio (2.365) is also within normal values, averaging (61.643).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TLRY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a holding company, whose subsidiaries engages in research, cultivation, processing and distribution of medical cannabis
Industry PharmaceuticalsOther
TLRY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TLRY has been closely correlated with SNDL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TLRY jumps, then SNDL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TLRY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLRY | 100% | -2.08% | ||
| SNDL - TLRY | 76% Closely correlated | -2.54% | ||
| CRON - TLRY | 68% Closely correlated | -2.42% | ||
| CGC - TLRY | 62% Loosely correlated | -8.58% | ||
| OGI - TLRY | 61% Loosely correlated | -2.99% | ||
| ACB - TLRY | 54% Loosely correlated | -10.57% | ||
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