TLRY Bullish Market Trend: RSI Oscillator Predicts 80% Upward Shift
Market Neutral Strategy (TA&FA) with TLRY: A Statistical Perspective on the Bullish Trend
The Trading Analysis (TA) and Fundamental Analysis (FA) insights into Tilray, Inc. (TLRY) reveal an increasingly positive outlook. The technical indicators, including the RSI Oscillator, Stochastic Oscillator, and MACD, along with the recent price performance, all point towards a strong likelihood of continued price appreciation.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) - a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements - for TLRY indicates a shifting trend from downward to upward. Out of 45 instances where TLRY's RSI Indicator exited the oversold territory, 36 resulted in a price increase. This translates to an 80% probability of the stock price continuing its upward trend, as suggested by Tickeron's analysis.
Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator - another momentum indicator comparing a particular closing price of a security to a range of its prices over a certain period of time - reinforces the RSI's upward trend prediction for TLRY. After exiting the oversold zone, the Stochastic Oscillator has historically led to an increase in TLRY's price in 53 out of 66 cases, implying an 80% probability of a continued upward trend.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TLRY, which is used to identify possible buy and sell signals, turned positive on June 21, 2023. This is a bullish signal that suggests upward price momentum. Historical data shows that when TLRY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued its rise in 36 out of 47 instances over the subsequent month. This suggests a 77% likelihood of TLRY maintaining its upward trajectory.
In addition, the recent +5.26% 3-day advance for TLRY offers a further hint at the stock's potential for more gains. History shows that in 179 of 220 situations where TLRY advanced for three consecutive days, the price climbed even further within the following month. This statistical occurrence suggests an 81% chance of a continued upward trend.
These insights project an optimistic future for TLRY. The combination of RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, and MACD analyses along with the recent price movements put TLRY in a promising light for those considering a market-neutral strategy. This TA&FA approach for TLRY has yielded a commendable 12.29% return, showcasing the potential of this strategy in choppy market conditions and reinforcing the advantage of employing multiple technical indicators to predict market trends.
TLRY's RSI Indicator descending into oversold zone
The RSI Indicator for TLRY moved into overbought territory on October 10, 2024. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TLRY as a result. In of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TLRY just turned positive on October 22, 2024. Looking at past instances where TLRY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TLRY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TLRY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for TLRY entered a downward trend on October 21, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.545) is normal, around the industry mean (56.825). P/E Ratio (8.518) is within average values for comparable stocks, (89.935). TLRY's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.890). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.122) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.355) is also within normal values, averaging (18.882).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. TLRY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TLRY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a holding company, whose subsidiaries engages in research, cultivation, processing and distribution of medical cannabis
Industry PharmaceuticalsOther